Voter Demographics

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While I find all types of demographics interesting, I am especially intrigued by the not-so-obvious voter demographics that you see around the election years. I think Clinton and Obama are an excellent example of totally expected and totally not expected voter demographics.

For example, no one should be surprised to hear that blacks tend to vote for Obama and white women tend to vote for Clinton. Such comments seem so self-evident that it would only be surprising if such were not the case. To a lesser degree it is also not surprising that older voters tend to favor Clinton, while younger voters favor Obama.

But then there are some that I have a hard time finding a reason why. For example, white collar workers, college educated, and middle to upper class people tend to favor Obama, while blue collar, and lower class people tend to favor Clinton.

I don't have a good explanation for the above, but the biggest wtf? for me is this one: Hispanics favor Clinton over Obama by a 2-1 margin. One would have to think that a major (if not the major) issue for Hispanics would be immigration, and since Obama and Clinton are so close on that issue, that can't be the deciding factor. The differences on the economy and the war in Iraq also do not seem significant enough for Hispanics to favor Hillary either, and yet, 2-1 is such an overwhelming margin that there has to be SOMETHING that causes this.

 

The most common explanation I've heard for this is that the working class tends to have less access to different media outlets. They are less likely to have internet access, less likely read the newspaper, and are (sadly) generally less informed than the middle class. Since Clinton has a major edge in name recognition, and the working class is generally less informed, they are more likely to vote for her.

This, I think, ties into my point above. A disproportionate portion of hispanics tend to be working class (and, therefore, less informed) and Bill Clinton passed NAFTA.

 

There has long been friction between the black and Hispanic communities. As I understand it: many Hispanics feel blacks get most of the government benefits from being a minority group at the expense of Hispanics.

 

Well said, I tried to respond to this question a dozen times, but I couldn't come up with an eloquent way to put it. There are many types of racisms.

 

Actually, I just heard this one, which is closest to Drew's explanation. In addition to NAFTA, Bill Clinton raised minimum wage (twice), and passed the Family Medical Leave Act, all of which were very popular among the Hispanics. The thinking is that "We liked your husband, so we'll probably like you too."

Those changes were popular among African Americans too, but the first black man with a real shot at the White House seems to trump the popularity of Bill Clinton within the African American community.

While I certainly cannot deny that there are many kinds of racism, I think that listing this as the main reason is an oversimplification. Verily, racists still exist, but I would like to think that overt racism is down among all races of people. Certainly saying that 2/3 of Hispanics support Hillary because of racism - or that 2/3 of all Hispanics are racist seems difficult to believe.

 

You mean the same middle class that voted for GWB? That was a well-informed decision, if you can count the right-wing media as an "informed source." There may be those who believe that it is, but recent events have tended to prove that the coporate media can't be completely trusted - just look at what an informed decision Iraq was.

Well, I really don't buy into any of the informed/ill-informed class bias. I think "working class" people tend to vote their own interests: Medical care, childcare, education (Tuition tax credits) and the like tend to cut very deeply with them. This is where the Clintons have always been effective, as Aldeth points out.

 

That's a good point, but it does little to explain all those poor, southern red states. The working class votes against its own interests all the time.

 

I'm with Chandos on this, people find a topic that is of vital interest to them and vote on it. Literally -- I've known many people who have decided on a candidate on how that person stands on ONE issue. What issue is important to the religious south? Perhaps abortion....

I tend to believe people keep themselves intentionally ignorant. It has nothing to do with class, race, religion, or sexual preference -- it's just laziness on the individual's part. Similarly, informed people come from all walks of life. Sure, having money and computers with internet access make things easier, but the poster child for ignorance is a filthy rich spoiled girl (no names but her initials are Hilton).

 

Absolutely, T2. That's the hotbed of the evangelical right and, as you point out, the issues are gay marriage and abortion. They would rather starve to death, rather than see another one of either of those happen.

 

I'm not sure that NAFTA was popular among African-Americans. Many poor and working-class blacks feel that Hispanics -- or at least the millions of illegals from Mexico -- are taking jobs away from blacks. Remember Fox's "Mexicans take jobs even black people won't do" comment?

 

Obama doesn't have any trouble with the black vote. He has trouble with the Hispanic vote*, and Hispanics love NAFTA.


* Not really. When polled, 74% of Hispanics reported having a favorable impression of Barack Obama. Hillary's lead on Obama is an affirmation of Clinton, not a slight to Obama.