Primaries

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She was expecting a big win last night in Indiana (she won by just two percentage points), and was hoping to finish really close, and possibly even win North Carolina (she got blown out by 14 percentage points). My guess is she cancelled her appearances because her prepared comments were no longer appropriate given the events that transpired last night.

 

I give it two more weeks, June 3 at the latest before she concedes. I don't think anyone will let the Clintons drag this out to the convention. Their soft power within the party has been mortally wounded by their antics in this campaign. Last night belonged to Obama all around. Obama now has a sizable lead in every conceivable metric, Oregon alone will put him well over the 2.025 line in delegates, and the Clinton campaign is worse than broke, as she just lent the campaign anothe r$6.4 million of her own money.

The superdelegates aren't idiots. No way will they award her the 70% of the remaining superdelegate votes needed to win after the tarring they did to Obama in the last month didn't even make a dent in his numbers. Obama is now the nominee, and I think even the Clintons know that now. The only question now is HOW she'll step down...

 

Yeah, she needed a big win in Indiana last night. It's over for her now, and she has to know it. I think everyone was waiting to see how well Obama survived the "Wright" issue and I think how well he did last night proves that he overcame the media attacks - at least with Democrats.

 

Certainly not gracefully based on the latest news. I have a feeling she will go down kicking and screaming all the way ... and take as much of the party down with her as she can. I think your right about the Clintons losing some power in the party due to this campaign -- their stock will even be lower if McCain is elected.

Hillary continues to solidify the initial impression I had of her at the beginning of this campaign.

 

I have to agree with T2 on this one -- if HIllary had any sense she'd stand aside. But my initial impression of her as a power hungry, self absorbed witch has still not changed. I sincerely hope she doesn't destroy the Democrats chances in the election with her selfishness.

 

To be honest, I think it is because of the Clintons' power in the democratic party that there isn't more talk of her stepping down. The superdelegates have it in their power to come out in support of Obama, assuring him of the nomination. I think that many in the party are holding off - and will continue to hold off until the primary season ends - to see if she is willing to bow out gracefully.

Having said that, I saw an opinion piece by John Alter (from Newsweek) on MSNBC last night that made a lot of sense as to why Hillary has not bowed out yet: Even if she concedes right now, her name will still appear on the ballot in West Virginia and Kentucky, and she'll likely still win those two states by double-digit margins even though she had conceded the nomination. That is bad for a couple of reasons: 1.) It looks bad for Obama to lose to someone who's not running and 2.) If she continues to win a few states after she's dropped out it may give the appearance to her core supporters that she was forced out, which would make unifying the party much more difficult. It may be more appropriate for her to stay in until the primary season is over, and we decide what to do with Florida and Michigan (all of which will be decided in about three more weeks), and then concede.

 

ha! ha!,cheers to the further fractoring of the democratic party.
jay leno had a funny line last night " hillary says she is out of money, the republicans called and asked how much do you need" gotta love it when your enemies spend more time stabbing each other than you

 

Doesn't matter, because it's the American people who have been stabbing the Republican Party into the Abyss for the incompenent job that its party leader has done. Yeah, gotta love it when the enemy is its own worst "enemy."

The real test will come in the Senate. If the Democrats continue to gain seats, even IF the Republicans win the White House its occupant will be at the mercy of a stronger Democratic Congress. Gotta love it....

 

I would tend to agree with you Chandos except when it comes to the Republican candidate. McCain is well respected on the hill. He has repeatedly shown a willingness to cross party lines to support causes.

 

T2Bruno hit it right on the head with mccain

 

This is what I like the most about McCain. Unfortunately, it's what the base of the Republican party hates the most about McCain. Hence, why Republicans are still showing up to primaries in droves to vote against him even though he's already tied it up.

 

true however in a choice between him & ANY democrat they will vote for him.

 

Most likely - just like I doubt too many Democrats will vote for McCain, come what may. They may vote for an independent and stay home, though, although after the last 2 elections I would be surprised if too many of them did that.

BTW, remember the show where the Ann Coulter said that if McCain was the Republican Nominee, she's voting for Hillary? It was quite fun, in a way

 

Well...no, not this time. John McCain has one huge strike against him that cuts across partisan lines. He supported the war in Iraq and continues to support it. A majority of Americans - both republican and democrat - want us to pull out of Iraq. The conservative base has no problem with (and in fact lauds) McCain's continued support of the Iraq war, but contrary to what they seem to believe, the conservative base is not the republican party, just as the liberal base is not the democratic party. The majority members of both parties lean either center-right or center-left, and for divisive issues like this, they can and will vote against their own party.

 

The Republicans are in the same place that the Dems were after Jimmy Carter, another equally unpopular president. The only way the Republicans can stop the slide is to listen to the American people. No doubt Mac is a very likable candidate: he understands how Washington works, he's engaging and can be very funny (Americans tend to like that in a prez). The question remains - Which John McCain will show up for the election: John "Big Mac" McCain, or John McBush? The latter will sink him, as Drew points out.

 

McCain: It has been obvious for the past year that the "maverick" has had his brand surgically removed and is now, the long-lost lover returned, firmly embracing the Bush agenda. "Four More Years!" is probably about the worst election slogan to float in 2008, but that's what McCain's doing. Perhaps he felt he couldn't overthrow the GOP establishment with a "maverick" campaign, but in fact it was his only chance to win the White House. Bush and his cronies are an albatross around his neck that he will never be able to overcome. Only if the Democrats self-destruct will he be able to win. People who believe the "real" McCain will emerge if he's elected are pipe-dreaming. You can only sell your soul once. As Obama said, "The wheels came off the 'Straight-Talk Express'." There was a nice exchange at the end of tonight's Colbert Report. Colbert's guest, Arrianna Huffington, said, "Iraq is McCain's Viagra." To which Colbert replied, "And if the erection lasts more than one hundred years, you should pull out."

Clinton: She can no longer win--barring Obama being struck by lightning--so why is she still here? She has, supposedly, an easy victory next week in West Virginia, but how much momentum will that generate, even with a lot of Clinton tub-thumping? The super delegates are certainly going to begin to flake away, perhaps cascade away. It's pretty certain she wants something, and if not the White House, then something as close to it as she can get. Perhaps she's hoping to force the convention to accept her as the Vice-Presidential candidate; that is, to make this nomination a floor fight, with all her delegates. Or some other high office? Or perhaps she just can't bring herself to give up her dream and abandon the fight? Still waiting for that lightning bolt, most likely.

 

Waiting for Barack to be struck by lightning? That's pretty funny. It's her only hope though. Maybe she thinks it'll happen. Maybe she has more in common with Huckabee than one would believe -- remember when he said that the numbers didn't matter to him? He said something like "I majored in Theology in college, not Mathematics, and so therefore I believe in miracles!" or something like that. Hilarious. Look what happened to him, primary wise.

Hillary will not drop out until the bitter, bitter end. And mark my words, she'll spend the next 4 years sniping from the sidelines, undermining Obama and screwing her own party over out of spite.

If she's hoping for the Veep slot, she must be more delusional than I thought -- given the tenor of her battle with Obama, he'd be a complete fool to put her on a ticket with him. He'd be better off french kissing a rattlesnake.

 

The exact quote was "I didn't major in math. I majored in miracles."

To be fair to Mr. Huckabee, when he said that there was still a substantial chance of blocking McCain from reaching the 51% mark, greatly reducing, and due to the fact that most republican primaries were winner-take-all, even eliminate the gap between them. Further, there were hundreds of votes up for grabs from the supporters of Romney, Paul, and the rest. If Huckabee were able to successfully block McCain from gaining the nomination and narrow the gap far enough, Romney's supporters alone could have handed it to him. In other words, the math was against him, but it wasn't as against him as it currently is against Hilary Clinton.

Last I checked, other democrats only hold about 18 delegates total. While it is possible that those 18 or so delegates could be the deciding factor, it isn't terribly likely that it'll matter. There is no well-spring of delegates held by other candidates to lean on and the odds of her bringing enough of the remaining supers over to her side are extraordinarily low.

 

Possible, but don't be a mind-reader just yet. Are you willing to bet a cookie on your psychic powers ?

 

I love cookies.