Primaries

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So last night each candidate took one state if I remember the morning news correctly. That still means (depending on state size) that Barack is in the lead pretty sizeably, right? I understand the desire of people to "count EVERY vote" but come on! A little realism might help the Democratic party here. Does anyone know the odds the bookies in Vegas are putting on this race?

 

You're pretty much spot on LKD. Hillary won Kentucky, while Barack won Oregon. However, Hillary's win in Kentucky was bigger than Barack's win in Oregon, and since the states had nearly identical number of delegates to award (Oregon had 52, Kentucky had 51), Hillary is going to walk away with a small net gain in total delegates. So instead of being 165 behind, she's going to be around 155 behind.

As for the odds, the race for the nomination came off the board shortly after the Ohio and Texas primaries and caucus. It was already clear at that time that Hillary needed unattainably large wins the rest of the way to secure the nomination. The concept of a Hillary nomination at this point is quickly moving from "highly improbable" to "mathematically impossible".

 

There was a funny political cartoon in the paper this morning -- it showed Hillary blithely reading a statement that "I am continuing to pursue my campaign and feel that the White House is in reach . . ." while behind her Barack was being sworn in!

 

At this point, I think she's going more to prime her image as a future presidential candidate. IIRC despite all the criticism, historically the number of voters she's mobilized and getting out is quite high, and her loss would be more a testament of Obama's campaign success than her failure. Plus, the visibility (and the reputation for perseverance she's getting) can serve her well. On the other hand, afaik she has recently stepped down her criticism of the Obama campaign mostly to procedural points of economy and policy - issues that are a matter for the politicians and the experts within the party and with dubious impact over the larger amounts of voters.

If this impression of mine is correct, it would imply that Hillary is preparing to step down. It would be more than surprising if she did not realize by now that she won't win without some miracle, and miracles seldom come out of the blue - so her choices would be either to go for the gusto, which she does not appear to be doing, or prepare for a concession. In that case, she would continue posturing for a while: this might build up her public image, and it would remind everyone she has a strong power base, hopefully winning the appreciation of the party elites and prompting a suitable runner-up prize - and maybe a strong enough support for a 2012 run.

Now, since I am not a journalist, I will admit this is mostly guesswork. However, just because I'm guessing doesn't mean I'm wrong .

EDIT: Newsflash: John McCain drops Hagee over the sermon that Hitler had been sent by God to make the Jews move to Israel. Well, I never liked that pastor, anyway. It's also mentioned here.

 

Were we speaking of Cuba?

Oh, no! Obama "promises concessions" to Cuba? I'm sure the cigar industry is shaking already...

 

Ah, those lovable, voting Cuban immigrants... Where would populists be without them?

 

A few pages back in this thread I wrote, "Why is Hillary still in this race? Is she waiting for Obama to be struck by lightning?"

The candidate herself has now confirmed that that's exactly what she's waiting for. In a rather strange, disjointed interview with the editorial board of a South Dakota newspaper, she was asked why was she still in the race. She said that her husband didn't clinch the nomination in 1992 until the California primary in June of that year. So far, so good, right? Not quite, really, since most of the states have moved their primaries to an earlier date since 1992--see Florida and Michigan--and only South Dakota and Montana are left, both small population states without enough delegates to swing the convention in Clinton's favor even if she swept them.

But then, in a bizarre continuation, Clinton added that Bobby Kennedy had been assassinated in California in 1968 after winning that primary. I don't think she meant that her husband had won in 1992 because Bobby Kennedy was assassinated in 1968. More like a revelation of how she thinks she might win, still get the nomination. And it would seem not to be just a case of frayed nerves and campaign exhaustion, for it turns out that she has said the same thing three other times in the last two months. That is, it's a theme that is much on her mind.

She said almost exactly the same thing in an interview with Time Magazine in March, but it was not picked up by the rest of the media. A month later she said much the same thing in two speeches, but without using the word "assassination". She has expressed her regrets to the Kennedy family for what she said, but has made no other apology. Without going too deeply into the morality of this, I will say that expessing the wish, however obliquely, that someone would shoot your opponent is not entirely in accord with republican principles.

So it seems that Senator Clinton is hoping that Senator Obama will be struck by lightning, or its equivalent.

 

yeah its been all over the news the last few days, i was waiting to see what our resident dems & liberals on the boards were gonna say about it. i guess the absense of any of their postings is answer enough just how far can she stick that foot in her mouth

 

Seeing as Obama actually seems to be a real liberal and a reasonably sensible person I have actually wondered these last few days when he is going to be assassinated. Saw a documentary about Robert Kennedy a while back and I have a decent picture of JFK and Obama seems to be not like them but at least in contrast to the current political establishment to such an extent that I would give him 50/50 odds to survive until election and if he do manage to get elected to be killed before his term is out.

It isn't paranoia if they actually are out to get you.

 

WTF? Can you get a link to that?

 

shaman, it's been on all the news channels for days, thats all they have been talking about. it was front page on the New York Times friday or saturday about her huge gaff(thats what they were calling it, not me)


hers is a link: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=x79oO-bOv0s hope it helps

 

When did that happen?

 

here is her "apology" & the medias response to it: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aLK7zktQpTY&feature=related
they didn't take it very well

 

I have not followed this story, since I viewed the headlines as just the spin doctors in the media preying upon the ignorance of that portion of the American population that only seeks the advantage in the “gottcha” game of what passes for politics in this great nation.

Add it to the list of other comments that were "interpreted" for us by the media spinners, such as Al Gore saying that he “invented the internet.”

Here, I’ll throw one out: It is my sincere hope that once elected Obama will be a president just like Abe Lincoln. Holy Cow!!! Did Chandos just say that he hopes that Obama will be shot by a crazed "Confederate" madman in a theater??!! Somebody call Fox News, and hurry, put it on uTube!

Edit: The post has been edited to reflect that Booth was not really from the same "state" as Obama.....

 

chandos, get your facts straight, booth was from maryland, that there is d@#% yankee land !
yes it was a slave state but they did not secede from the union.

 

Sorry, but for real Yankees, those from north of the Hudson, Maryland IS the South. And that's a "fact." But then you may say that the Hudson is too long a river, and almost anyone in western New York is not really a "yankee." So, let me reframe that, and say south of the George Washington Bridge. You know, the one that goes over the Hudson, just so that it won't be confused with another bridge with the same name, like say, the Washington Bridge, which goes over the Harlem River.

He may have been born in Maryland, but he was a Southerner at heart. Whether or not the qualifies him as a "Southerner" is not relevant to the larger point of my post, as I'm sure you are already quite aware. I am going to edit my post to indicate "Confederate" so that you will have to address the real point of the post rather than a strategic attempt at deflection on your part...you will notice the correction to indicate your complaint...Of course, you can refute that by saying he was not really a Confederate, because he was not from the South, and Maryland was really never a part of the Confederacy...thusly, I placed a link that may help with anymore "facts" regarding my post...have a nice day.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/John_Wilkes_Booth

 

oh no, i was just picking on you for calling booth a southerner most of the southerners i know put the line at virginia. above that & you are a yankee. course i know one ole lady that puts it at shreveport ! not too many true southerners to her !
but back on topic: i can see what she was trying to say about not wanting to get put of the race too earlier however i can also see were some people took it the wrong way & may have thought she was implying something.
i think this is another one of those foot in mouth things were if she had said it once, it may have been glossed over but she apparently said it at 4 or 5 different rallies/interviews so just like the infamous sniper comment it bit her in the tuckus(not quite sure of the spelling on that one) hope that clears things up

personally, i'm not worried as to who the dem's finally pick as mccain was dead as the reps choice until the independents got behind him. now the reps will NEVER vote for a dem so they will vote for him plus the indies & i think he has it sewed up. but you never know, i have been wrong before.

 

Exactly! When I lived in NY, many there considered New Jersey to be the "South." But I'm sure that the media spinners will have a go at Mac with the "gotcha" game as well before this is all over....

Edit: I found this on Wiki as well regarding Yankees:

 

ok, who eats pie for breakfast ? chocolate cake yes ! but pie ? sacrelige !


oh oh new york joke time

why are all new yorkers ticked off?

because the light at the end of their tunnel is new jersey that would tick off anybody

how come new york doesn't fall into the ocean?

because new jersey SUCKS !

that is all for now, we now return you to your regularly scheduled programming.

 

How the H E double hockey sticks did this thread turn into a discussion of American geographical perceptions and NY jokes? This place twists around like a snake on speed.

Back to Hillary, I think her comments were twisted around something fierce. I don't like the woman, but that doesn't mean I'll be ridiculous about what she says. It's not like everyone else, people I like included, don't make comments that sound really, really bad in hindsight.