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3-2 (three straight wins) now with the 3rd most points scored, but the most against me.

RB situation is BAD. McFadden is about worthless at this point so he's off, so last week I picked up Harrison who gained about 110+ for my injured Lewis so that was nice. Then I left him again this weekend and Lewis came back very solid... Gah. I guess my WSU bias hurt me there.

QB is a comfortable situation with McNabb back healthy apparently, though I did start Flacco this week, ouch.

Burleson keeps doing what I expected so my WR have been very good (Wayne, Boldin, and TE Winslow).

Feeling alright at this point. A running back besides Turner who can produce week in, week out, would be nice. The others are D. Brown, A. Bradshaw, Lewis, and Harrison. Yuck.

 

I'm now 2-3, 3 straight losses. I took a real beating this week, my opponet put up 156 pts! I totalled in at 93, which was third best in the league, but nowhere near enought to win. I did have 5 players on the bye this week, so I did have my benchwarmers in the lineup. I won the 1st 2 weeks, started talking alot of crap on the "Smacktalk" option and then preoceeded to lose every game since. Karma?

 

This is assessment time. Obviously, you like the team that you draft. You wouldn’t have selected those players unless you liked them, so provided you had a plan going into the draft and didn’t completely wing it, you should walk out of the draft with a fairly positive opinion of your team. However, things never work out as you plan – even the best prognostication has some flaws in it – and there will always be players that over-perform and under-perform. It is usually the ratio of over-performers to under-performers that determine the success of your team.

People like to throw around terms like sleeper stars (Ex: Steve Smith, NYG) and busts (Ex: Darren McFadden), and while those labels do fit those particular players, I prefer the term over-performers and under-performers, as there are many shades of gray when it comes to players that fail to meet or exceed expectations. For example, I wouldn't call Vincent Jackson a sleeper, but his numbers through four weeks have been nothing short of spectacular, and you got 2nd round value for a guy picked in round 4 or 5. Similarly, I wouldn't call DeAngelo Williams a bust, even though his numbers haven't lived up to his pre-season draft rank in the top 10.

We have now reached the point in the season where you can start making assessments of your players. You would never drop a high draft pick after a few disappointing weeks to pick up a guy you never heard of off the waiver wire who had a singular great performance. But there comes a point in the season where, in the words of Bill Parcells, "You are what your record says you are."

I have nearly identical records for all three teams, and yet my years of fantasy football experience tell me that I am looking at two championship contenders and one team that will be lucky to make the playoffs. And it is actually pretty simple to figure out. You look at your team, you see how many people you have that are over-performing relative to their pre-draft rankings, and how many are under-performing, and unless you can point to something that indicates something will change, you know if you're going to the playoffs or not.

Let's look at my three teams as case studies:

Team #1: The first thing that makes this a playoff team is I didn't hose any of the first few picks. While my 2nd RB isn't spectacular (Ryan Grant) he's been solid enough. You cannot win your league with your first few picks, but you can definitely lose it. What puts this team over the top and makes it a playoff team is I have three bona fide over-performers: Cedric Benson, Vincent Jackson, and Brent Celek. Jackson and Benson are performing like 2nd round picks, even though they were taken in Rounds 4 and 8, respectively. It's like getting 4 picks, instead of 2 picks in the first 2 rounds. I took Celek in Round 14, and while I don't know where he would be picked if the draft were held today, it would be a hell of a lot higher than Round 14. You can never predict a championship for a team, because all it takes is one bad week in the playoffs, but this team going to the playoffs is a near certainty.

Team #2: This team is also likely going to the playoffs. I have two over-performers here. Steve Smith (v2.0) and Matt Schaub. Smith is a top-10 WR who was acquired in Round 12, and Schaub is the 5th highest rated QB, taken in Round 7. I also got very solid value in Donald Driver (Rd 10) and David Garrard (ranked 10th in fantasy points, taken in Rd 11). This is somewhat tempered in that I spent my 2nd and 3rd round picks on Westbrook and Barber. I made sure I grabbed their backups (Felix Jones, Rd 8 and LeSean McCay (two names - four capital letters) - Rd 9), and that's definitely kept me afloat. They are both definitely under-performers, but it's been because of injury and I have their immediate backups, so I don't consider either of them busts. With a safety net in place, and some over-performers this is a 3-2 team with better things ahead. (This team only had one bad week - the 2nd loss came when my opponent dropped 140 on me.)

Team #3: Even though this team has the same 3-2 record as team #2, this team is NOT a contender, and will be lucky to make the playoffs. The only over-performer I have is Schaub. I have complete busts in Darren McFadden, LenDale White, and Derrick Ward. My first two picks were DeAngelo Williams and Steve Slaton, and while neither are busts, they have not lived up to top 15 pre-draft billing. So I'm paper thin at RB, despite spending 5 of my top 8 picks there. The WRs are solid, but nothing you would call over-performers: Colston, Marshall, Driver, Breaston, Sidney Rice, and recently acquired Massaquoi (or however you spell it). This is a team that is doing it with mirrors. If Schaub has a good week we have a chance (although he played well this past week and I lost) if I get solid performances from everyone else. But there's no margin for error on this team, and if one or two guys don't show up, I'm done. I think this is a .500 team at best.

So what's your guys story?

 

Well, this year I tought I drafted a solid team. Here's the breakdown.

At QB, Brees started strong, has slowed, but after the bye week he should be fine. With Big Ben as the other option, I feel pretty confident I will be well represented at QB

RB is an altogether different monster. LT and LJ have been duds. Parker has put up no numbers, Stewart has been ok, but Carolina is floundering offensively. I just picked up Mendenhall to help alleviate Parker. Overall, i'm pretty dissappointed.

At WR, i'm undecided. Ochocinco has been ok, Boldin haddn't scored much, Driver is as expected, consistant. San Moss had one big week, I sat him that week! I dropped Holt for Mendenhall, he didn't score yet, no big loss there.

TEs - TG is awesome, so I will stand by my pick. With Olsen as a backup, i feel good at TE

K - Grotkowski(?), NE - Meh, who cares about kickers!

Def - Chi and Dal. I have picked the wrong one each week. Frustrating!

But overall, I like the team, I think I am playoff worthy and already having a nice chunk of my bye weeks gone, I think I can compete. Only if LJ or LT would find the magic again!

 

QB- drafted Donovan McNabb and he has done exactly as expected. Signed Chad Pennington off the waiver wire early and luckily he got hurt fast enough for me to pick up Joe Flacco. Comfortable at that position.

RB- Michael Turner had a slow start, but I'm still happy to have him. The rest are a mess. McFadden is a definite underachiever. Donald Brown hasn't taken the starting role from Addai, but is doing as good as expected. Bradshaw doesn't get enough carries for me to want to start him, but he has been productive... Lewis and Harrison (replaced McFadden) are doing enough tho to please me for how easy they were to get.

WR- My favorite position to stock up on in 3WR leagues has done nicely. Reggie Wayne is ultra-productive, Burleson is having the break out year I predicted, and Boldin is Boldin. Backing up is Mark Clayton, who is just servicable.

TE- Just Kellen Winslow, and I'm happy.

K- John Carney, kept him through the bye and figure the Saints will score enough to keep him active.

DST- 49ers/whoever plays the Rams or Browns in a given week. Good strategy

 

Blades, that's a tough go of it at RB... Your hope may be justified with LT, but I just don't see it happening for LJ. LT had a week off, will start Sunday, and plays in a productive enough offense that has a passing game you need to respect that will stop opposing defenses from loading up on the run. If LT can avoid the injury bug, there's no reason to suspect that he can't acheive moderate success. (I do think his best days are behind him, but that he has something left in the tank.)

LJ on the other hand, looks dead. If you have the roster space, you may want to pick up Jamaal Charles, LJ's backup. He hasn't got many carries thus far (only 28 on the year at this point), but I cannot see the Cheifs running LJ out there much longer. They may well give the kid a chance.

It's also unfortunate that you have to hold onto both Parker and Mendenhall. You don't know who is gonig to start from week to week, so you need to hold onto both of them to make sure.

On the bright side, your QBs are very good, and I'd take those three receivers any day.

@Chicken - Your team definitely looks good. I agree that Bradshaw doesn't get as many carries as you would like, but that guy has definitely put up numbers good enough to start him every week. If you can start two RBs and a flex player, there's no reason you wouldn't start Turner, Bradshaw and Lewis/Harrison, with Brown covering on the bye weeks. I see nothing wrong with those backs. That's a solid team you have.

EDIT: The more I think about it, every league I have ever won, I've had "that guy". "That guy" is the pick up off the waiver wire or taken late in the draft that has a breakout year. If you don't have "that guy", you need to have a near-perfect draft (hitting on your first 7-8 picks) to have a chance to win your league.

EDIT2: Got a question for you guys on starts for the week in one of my league. This is actually a good problem to have. I have to start three of the following four WR:

Colston vs NYG
Houshmanzadeh vs ARI
Driver vs DET
Smith (v2.0) @NO

I like all four this week, but I have to sit one of them. I think the decision is really between Housh and Driver. What do you guys think?

 

I would sit Colston. The Giants D is stingy this year. His odds of scoring are low. The others are all playing against D's that allow points.

 

I lean towards sitting Houshmandzadeh. For whatever reason I just don't think he will do good two weeks in a row. Didn't like the pickup for Seattle.

 

I was also leaning towards sitting Housh. The reason for my doubt was because Housh has only had two good games all year, and Hasselbeck was the QB for both those games. His numbers went down during the games Seneca Wallace was the QB, but now Hasselbeck is back.

I highly doubt I will sit Colston. Matchups are, of course, important. But I think the matchup is the determining factor only when the skill levels of the players involved are about equal. I would say that Colston is the biggest talent I have at WR.

I also do not have as much confidence in the Giants defense, especially given the injuries to their secondary. They have already announced that one of their starting cornerbacks (Ross) is out for the game, as is one of their starting safeties (although I don't remember his name at the moment). Coming off a bye week with two weeks to prepare for this Giants team, it wouldn't surprise me in the least if the Saints actually win this game.

 

I don't know, the Giants D is well rested after a no contest win against the Raiders. The Giants secondary basically had the week off agaisnt Oakland. I HATE the Giants, but I see them play alot as my Eagles have to meet them twice a year. Trust me, their secondary is deep, why do think they get so many sacks. It's not all Umee, and previosly Strahan. They have time to get to the QB because the coverage is good. That secondary is very underrated. McNabb throws for a lot of yards against week secondaries, but really struggles against the Giants. There is a reason for that. They smother #1 receivers. It's TEs and RBs that beat them in their pass defense schemes, not WRs.

 

It is rather simplistic, but I follow two general rules in setting my lineups:

Rule #1: Start your best players.

Rule #2: If you cannot decide on who the better player is, go with whomever has the better matchup.

Now, I'm sure that argument will fall on deaf ears, as you are seriously considering benching Drew Brees in favor of Big Ben. That's something I don't think I would ever do, but hey, it's your team.

I just don't think that Colston suddenly becomes my 4th best receiving option, just because he has a tougher opponent. And that Giants secondary is banged up - they don't have two of the members that gave McNabb fits last year. While they are giving up fewer than 200 passing yards per game (which I admit is great), you have to consider that they have played Washington, Dallas, Tampa Bay, Kansas City, and Oakland. With the exception of Dallas, those other four teams don't just have bad passing numbers - they are among the worst in the league.

Obviously we won't know until Sunday, but I guess I see this game playing out considerably differently that you do. I think it will be a fairly high scoring affair, regardless of who wins.

 

I just think the Giants D is THAT good. And trust me, I HATE to admit it. If they allowed more pass yards against those teams, they would be laughed at. But the key is the Giants ability to ....

1 - Not give up the big TD pass, which is what you want from Colston.

2 - The lack of passing TDs they allow in the Red-Zone to WRs.

3 - Their offense will control the clock with the run game and then bury you with the pass when you bring 8 man fronts. Clock control will limit scoring oppurtunities for Colston.

If this was any other team other than NYG, I wouldn't think I was that knowledgable about the defense, but I see them alot and they make me "ASCARED" for Donovan and crew.

 

All this disucssion, and as it turns out, due to recent events, I'm going to end up benching Colston anyway.

This was the league where I had two quality tight ends - Dallas Clark and Brenk Celek. Since Celek already had his bye week, it seemed senseless for me to continue to hold onto both of them. However, I knew I couldn't get a decent player for Celek, so I put Clark on the market. I knew I wasn't going to get a #1 WR or #1 RB in exchange for the best TE in the league, however, I certainly wasn't going to accept anything less than a #2. Just because I don't have a need to for two starter-quality TEs, doesn't mean I'm going to give them away.

So I got an offer for Steve Slaton, and I took it. Not only will be provide a great flex option during bye weeks, it also gives me a decent play every week. My three backs other than Slaton are Forte, Westbrook, and Barber. I'm getting really sick of the "which back is going to get the start" game in Philly and Dallas, and at least I know that Slaton is the man in Houston. Slaton is also a threat out of the backfield, and this is a league that awards 1/2 point per reception, so that also raises his value a bit.

The point of all this, is that I'm no longer starting a WR in my flex spot. My opponent this week isn't particularly good, and so I went with my two safest receivers, which IMO are Smith and Driver.

 

Nicely done Aldeth. Hopefully Celek scores lost of TDs for you as a starter. It's tough to move a Dallas Clark, but slaton is an excellent pickup. Houston's defense is weak, which means lots of shootout games for Houston, that always bodes well for Fantasy stats. Especially for versatile backs like Slaton. I actually think you robbed the guy blind.

 

I targeted this owner specifically, because of the rest of his team. While he used his 2nd round pick on Slaton, he has turned out to be the worst of his three starting backs, as he picked up Pierre Thomas and Cedric Benson later on. He was also playing Dustin Keller as his starting TE. So this guy was my perfect target: Not only did he have a spare RB, but he had a low end TE, and Clark would be considered a significant upgrade. I'm usually fair in my trade dealings - and doing a deal with this guy made sense for him as well as me. I e-mailed him and said I'd take any of the three backs, and he sent me the offer of Slaton for Clark.

The way I look at it, while Celek probably represents a downgrade to Clark, I don't think it's going to average out to more than a couple of fantasy points per game. Moreover, I really wanted a #2 RB more than a #2 WR, because I already HAVE what essentially amounts to four #2 receivers. (Smith is playing like a #1 right now, but I'm not convinced that will continue throughout the season - when the weather turns south, so may the Giants passing attack. That said, I think he has earned must-start status until he gives us some evidence of that stopping.)

There were some other offers on the table with #2 WR - one guy gave me a choice of either Hines Ward or DeSean Jackson, and another owner offered OchoCinco. All of those are starter-quality WRs, but all those deals give me a 5th choice of who to start at WR, and I can never start more than three in any given week. Colston and Driver have already had their bye week, and Smith and Housh have their byes on different weeks, so I'm going to have three starter quality WRs on my roster every week for the duration of the season. Adding a WR would have simply made my team go from having an excess of TEs to an excess of WRs.

In conclusion, there are only two ways this deal can screw me. 1.) Brent Celek or Steve Slaton gets hurt. Obviously, this would be potentially disasterous. It would either leave me without a TE, or mean I traded the #1 TE for a guy on IR. 2.) The Steve Slaton we have seen through the first few weeks is the "real" Steve Slaton. He's faced some tough defenses, and has not played well against them. He's only had two quality games thus far. I'm hoping for better things ahead. It's obviously a bad trade for me if I got rid of Clark for a guy who ends up riding the bench.

 

Looks like a 2-1 week this week. I have an outside shot at winning all three leagues, but I need Vincent Jackson to have a big game tonight to do so - like over 100 yards and a TD. Not impossible, but hardly likely.

So I'll probably be 4-2 in two leagues, and 3-2-1 in the other.

 

Anyone have Brady or Moss this week? 59-0, 6 TDs!

 

No, but I played against Brady. Frigging Patriots!!!

Aldeth, I was definitely way off mark about NO vs. NYG. I couldn't believe it! Though with all of my misiniformation last week, I decided to take your advice and switched to Brees at the last minute. Not that it matterd, my opponent had Brady, Ray Rice and Jones-Drew, so I was thoroughly thrashed this week, but Brees did have a great game and outscored Big Ben by 16. My opponent put up 186 pts this week. My measly 111, 2nd best in our league, wasn't even close! 2 teams had victories with less than 70 pts, one team even won with 59! I have played the top scorer 3 of the last 4 weeks. Frustrating! I'm now tied for last place at 2-4 but have the 2nd most points scorted in the league. Ironic, ain't it....

 

No worries, Blades. While Colston would have been the better start, I ended up winning the league no matter what combo of WRs I used. I got a very good performance out of Schaub, and my opponent only scored in the 80s - Schaub got me half way there by myself.

The thing that killed me in the one league I will likely lose is your Eagles. I started both Jackson and Celek, and while they each had decent days in terms of yardage, I really needed a TD out of one of them. I was pissed when Oakland converted that 3rd and 10 just before the 2 minute warning. If the Eagles got one more possession, even if they didn't win, Jackson and Celek were both at nearly 100 yards receiving, and we get a bonus 5 points for that. Losing to the Raiders - that's disgraceful.

I only was against Brady in one of my three leagues, and that was mitigated somewhat in that I had Moss. Still, that guy ended up putting 145 on me, and my 125 with only VJ left to play is not looking good.

 

I wonder how many people out there had the Eagles in the "Pick one team a week pool". A lot of people would of had them as the "gimme game of the week".