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No Double Dip?

Discussion in 'Alley of Dangerous Angles' started by Aldeth the Foppish Idiot, Sep 8, 2010.

  1. Aldeth the Foppish Idiot

    Aldeth the Foppish Idiot Armed with My Mallet O' Thinking Veteran

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    There has been increasing talk lately (at least in the US) that there will be a double dip recession - i.e., that just as it looks like the economy is starting to correct itself, it will fall flat again.

    I just read this article, which was a little more encouraging, and I don't think the author is just spouting blind optimism. The central point is that a double dip recession seems unlikely, simply because none of the economic indicators that tend to forecast recessions are headed in that direction, and that there current situation is very different from the economics in the last double dip recession the nation faced in the 1980s.

    For such a short read, it brought up a lot of points regarding recession forecasting that I was unaware of.
     
    Aldeth the Foppish Idiot, Sep 8, 2010
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  2. Déise

    Déise Both happy and miserable, without the happy part!

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    We're at no risk of a double dip here :D. It's just been straight down all the way :cry:.

    Looking at the US (and the UK I suppose) the comments to the article are very good. A proper double dip and return to recession look unlikely. The issue is it's hard to see where any recovery will come from, the economy could end up more or less flatlining. This would see us stuck at this lower level and in particular with much higher unemployment than we're used to.
     
    Déise, Sep 9, 2010
    #2
  3. Harbourboy

    Harbourboy Take thy form from off my door! Veteran Pillars of Eternity SP Immortalizer (for helping immortalize Sorcerer's Place in the game!)

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    Well, we've just had a huge earthquake here that's wrecked most of Christchurch so we're going to get a temporary boost to the economy from all the re-building work required. After that, we'll be back into the economic doldrums again.
     
    Harbourboy, Sep 9, 2010
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  4. Aldeth the Foppish Idiot

    Aldeth the Foppish Idiot Armed with My Mallet O' Thinking Veteran

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    I saw that on the news - the damage in Cristchurch looks massive - do you live nearby? (I know you live in New Zealand, but I'm not even sure which island, although judging by the location in your profile, I'd guess the north one, where the earthquake hit.)
     
    Aldeth the Foppish Idiot, Sep 9, 2010
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  5. Harbourboy

    Harbourboy Take thy form from off my door! Veteran Pillars of Eternity SP Immortalizer (for helping immortalize Sorcerer's Place in the game!)

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    No, Christchurch is in the South Island and I am in the North Island. So I'm about as far from the epicentre as it's possible to be in such a small country, but the disruption to people's lives, businesses, and infrastructure is pretty major. Having said that, it's going to a big boom time for builders and tradesmen for the next few years because there is a LOT of repair work to be done now.
     
    Harbourboy, Sep 10, 2010
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