Disorder in Ukraine

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What is it with Vienna, anyway? The richest man in Poland visits Vienna, meets a Russian spy and discusses matters of highest strategic level for Poland as if he was the decident. Then he says he didn't know whom he was meeting there. Oh sure, he goes to Vienna to meet some Russian hobo and chit-chat about selling the largest oil company in Poland to Russians. Yeah, right. Whatever gave him providence to discuss it even if the person was a decident (he says now that he was certain it was the Russian Vice Minister of Energy) is still unsolved.
What is it with Vienna?

 

Chev, if it would have been ricinum it is about so deadly he would be probably ... dead now. I wonder why this silly guy isn't just getting a silly biopsy done to get some tissue checked and that's it. But no,he won't. Instead folks like you weave cloak & dagger conspiracy theories about evil Vladimir Putin and his sinister plots.

Don't believeve erything you hear about and from Ukraine. What puzzles me most is that no one finds it to the slightest astounding that the US is influencing a country at russias doorstep - and that russia is pissed. Would russia influence mexican politics the US wouldn't like it either. I don't think that neocon's playing old skool 1980s rollback are doing themselves a favor. That time's over. Just a point.

Interesting article about Ukraine: The price of People Power.

 

Ragusa - you're seeing this from the other hemisphere, we see it here directly. I talk to Ukrainians every day (seeing as some of my University colleagues come from Ukraine), and I can hear their comments very well.

So it's wrong when USA meddles with internal affairs (even if they don't) of other countries, but it is ok if Russia interferes because it's "at their doorstep," am I correct?
What proof does anyone have of US influence in UA, anyway? None. Nada. On the other hand, has Russia meddled? YES, and for a good 15 years of Ukraine's "independence," not to mention the good 70 years of Soviet occupation. And now, because Ukraine wants to be a free nation and follow freedom principles, it is US influence or US meddling. This is idiocy.

 

Well you're forgetting the few hundred years before Soviet Union that Ukraine was a part of the Imperial Russia. Russia has old ties to the Ukraine so I find it quite natural that they want to keep close and "special" relations with Ukraine. The article that Llandon posted earlier in this topic illustrates perfectly the problem with NATO expansion to the east. Russia will find itself to be very lonely and very difficult to defend if Ukraine becomes a NATO member. I do not know about US influence but NATO influence most certainly exists in Ukraine and if Ukraine becomes a NATO member Russia will find itself in a very difficult position.

I too find the poisoning scandal ridiculous and I very much doubt he'd be alive if Putin really wanted him dead.

I'm very optimistic right now about the new elections and hope that the Yuschenko manages to win it in a fair way preferably without too much revolting and disorder. I doubt that Russia will seriously intervene in the elections or the conflict of course they hope that Yanukovic wins but I do not think that they will do much to ensure his victory or intervene if a open conflict breaks out in Ukraine.

 

Err... one point you are forgetting. One doesn't become part of an empire as a result of free choice.

In 1795, Poland was partitioned between Russia, Prussia and Austria, which lasted until 1918. So, does Putin have the right to meddle with our 2005 elections?

Finland was also part of the Imperial Russia for some time. How about Putin flies to Helsinki before your next elections and sends in some Specnaz in Finnish uniforms?

 

toughluck,
you should have read the article on Stratfor Llandon kindly posted. It is very illuminating to read it. Strategically the meddling in Ukraine is a dangerous game. America has repeatedly broken their words to Russia not to expand eastwards. That is, US trustworthyness is in question and Russia sure will retaliate in some way.

It is the question if a possible collapse of Russia is actually a desirable thing, with their nuclear arsenal, yet that is what the US policy seems to aim on. I'd rather see them as a capable ally rather than as a crippled and unstable rump-state.

And besides, you really think that the new western sponsored oligarchs are one bit better then the disposed of russian oligarchs? I don't think so. So, whatever the ukrainians say, they are probaly being played for a sucker by one side or another anyway.

This People's revolution is not at all about the people but about neocon geostrategy. That Europe supports them in this is IMO shortsighted and stupid.

I pretty much give a dog's poo about ancient Polish biases against Russia, Austria or Prussia when the stability of Europe's eastern hemisphere is at stake today. This is now and not 600 or 300 years ago. Wake up. It's a dangerous game that is played in the Ukraine.

 

If the CIA is behind Yushchenko, well then I have to hand it to them: this must be the first thing they haven't bungled in years! (Gee, I wonder how much they paid each of the demonstrators to act so enthusiastic...)

Just because the neocons like it doesn't mean it's evil. Plenty of non-neocons don't think this is a bad thing either. Sure, one can be cynical, and sure, there are vested interests, but hey, it's politics, and IMO this is a positive sign for the Ukraine and the region.

And as for Mother Russia:
Q: How intimidating do you think the US finds Russia?
A: Not very.

 

I never implied that it was "right" to meddle with the elections of other nations all I said it was natural for Russia to be concerned about the results of Ukraine.

Of course it is never right to meddle in the elections of other countries but I'm not quite convinced that Russia has done very much to mess up the elections even though it would not surprise me very much even if they had. Putin is a man of mystery and one who I definently do not trust.

I do not know how well you know the Finnish history but before the fall of the Soviet Union Russia had a nasty habbit of meddling in Finnish politics. I do not know about the Specnaz troops in Ukraine but the local media has not mentioned them and if there were proof of Russian troops in Ukraine I'm quite sure EU and USA would condemn that.

 

Russia has the same right to pump money and to meddle in Ukrainian politics as the US has.

Ukraine is strategically vital to Russia. Would Russia lose Ukraine it would lose strategic depth in the west, the thing that saved Russia when both Napoleon and Hitler attacked Russia. With just 300km from Ukraine's border to Mosocw Russia ia barely defensible anymore, short of using nukes. The neocons could make it only worse by wanting Ukraine in NATO, that would be close to a casus belli for Moscow.

If you condemn russian politics in Ukraine then you have to condemn America's backyard meddling in central America too. Ukraine is Russia's backyard, we'd better stay out of it.

America has broken guarantees made to Gorbachev by meddling in Ukraine, reflecting the spirit of the treaty busters in Bush's neocon administration. That is very stupid and only profitable in short term.

I am very much unpersuaded that America's record of being unreliable and unpredictable is helpful and contributing to a stable political situation on the globe. Sooner or later they'll need Russia as an ally. After Ukraine the price for help will certainly rise.

 

For reasons already mentioned by Ragusa and the article Llandon posted, I think it would be a very bad idea to let Ukraine join the NATO. Of course, I'm not opposed to Ukraine becoming a democracy.

Should Ukraine become a stable democracy, it would seem a logical next step to allow it to enter the EU. That would be just as threatening to Russia as Ukraine joining the NATO however. Should that be a reason to keep Ukraine out of the EU? I don't really know.

 

Putin just recently went on record as saying he didnt have a problem with Ukraine joining the EU. I think the problem lies with NATO specifically. Whilst the EU represents european nations, the US is still very much a driving force of NATO, as well as it being the old cold war adversary.

 

Just looking at the before and after shots.... it is damned striking. Gives me the willies.

 

So, what are the chances of this getting a full investigation?

 

Depends really. If Yuschenko wins, you can bet he'll get to the bottom of it.

I'm not going to speculate whether Russia was involved, and am not sure they would be anyway. However, with the Russians trying to discredit the doctors and the like, they are doing a great job of making themselves look like they have something to try and hide.

 

Hmm, I wrote that rolling back russia actually was a neocon desire and that the US aided Yuschenko. I'm not so sure anymore about the latter part.

Throughout the 1970s and 1980s rollback was basically the cornerstone of neocon policy to Russia. Speaking against my neocon con thesis, however, is the fact that Ukraine has troops in Iraq, and Yuschenko had declared to want to bring them home when in office. Certainly not a thing the neocons would like to see.

In fact, it seems the support of German political NGOs, the christ-democratic Konrad Adenauer Stiftung (KAS) and the social-democratic Friedrich-Ebert-Stiftung (FES) were a rather significant factor in countering Russia's candidate. Soros' Open Society Foundation, certainly not a neocon group, also played a substantial role.

However, wether it was the evil US and the sinister neocons or our heavenly FES and KAS or Soros' - it remains a stupid idea to roll back Russia
On the other hand it basically is a good idea to try to get a proper - that is: democratic process - with equal chances for all candidates.

As for Yuschenko, I'm unsure about his poisoning. It would fit so well in the stereotype of russian assassins that emerged in the 1950s. And it was only the poisoning that actually made Yuschenko somewhat special - a 'liberal' so dangerous to Russia that they had to eliminate him!

When he recovers wonderously in the next year we'll see. The story about the vienna hospital smells fishy to me. However, for now he has postphoned investigation in who poisoned him - in order to not influence the second election. How generous. He does not seem to be too afraid of being poisoned again methinks.

[ December 16, 2004, 10:56: Message edited by: Ragusa ]

 

Well now it's clear that Yuschenko has won the Ukrainan elections. Now it just remains to be seen how the eastern parts of Ukraine will respond to this. The elections may be over and the results corrected but I doubt the disorder is over yet...