POLL: NFL - Contender or Pretender?

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Well, we're nearly half way through the NFL season, and we're starting to separate the contenders from the pretenders. From the list below, who do you think is for real (as in a genuine shot at the playoffs) and who are the wanna-be teams that aren't going to make it.

So 10 questions: one for each division, and then two wildcard questions:

Poll Information
This poll contains 10 question(s). 16 user(s) have voted.
You may not view the results of this poll without voting.

Poll Results: NFL - Contender or Pretender? (16 votes.)

AFC East (Choose 1)
* Patriots - 100% (16)
* Jets - 0% (0)
* Bills - 0% (0)
* Dolfins - 0% (0)

AFC North (Choose 1)
* Bengals - 38% (6)
* Steelers - 63% (10)
* Browns - 0% (0)
* Ravens - 0% (0)

AFC South (Choose 1)
* Colts - 94% (15)
* Titans - 6% (1)
* Jaguars - 0% (0)
* Texans - 0% (0)

AFC West (Choose 1)
* Broncos - 56% (9)
* Chiefs - 0% (0)
* Raiders - 13% (2)
* Chargers - 31% (5)

NFC East (Choose 1)
* Giants - 44% (7)
* Eagles - 38% (6)
* Cowboys - 13% (2)
* Redskins - 6% (1)

NFC North (Choose 1)
* Packers - 13% (2)
* Vikings - 38% (6)
* Lions - 19% (3)
* Bears - 31% (5)

NFC South (Choose 1)
* Buccaneers - 6% (1)
* Saints - 13% (2)
* Panthers - 38% (6)
* Falcons - 44% (7)

NFC West (Choose 1)
* Seahawks - 75% (12)
* Rams - 13% (2)
* Cardinals - 6% (1)
* 49ers - 6% (1)

AFC Wildcards (Choose 2)
* Patriots - 19% (3)
* Jets - 0% (0)
* Bills - 6% (1)
* Dolfins - 0% (0)
* Steelers - 19% (3)
* Bengals - 31% (5)
* Ravens - 0% (0)
* Browns - 0% (0)
* Chiefs - 19% (3)
* Raiders - 19% (3)
* Chargers - 19% (3)
* Broncos - 19% (3)
* Titans - 6% (1)
* Colts - 0% (0)
* Jaguars - 31% (5)
* Texans - 0% (0)

NFC Wildcards (Choose 2)
* Eagles - 25% (4)
* Giants - 0% (0)
* Cowboys - 31% (5)
* Redskins - 13% (2)
* Packers - 0% (0)
* Vikings - 19% (3)
* Lions - 0% (0)
* Bears - 0% (0)
* Falcons - 25% (4)
* Saints - 0% (0)
* Panthers - 0% (0)
* Buccaneers - 38% (6)
* Seahawks - 13% (2)
* Cardinals - 6% (1)
* Rams - 6% (1)
* 49ers - 6% (1)

 

Nice poll, Aldeth...I wonder why no one is commenting on their choices. I will, maybe start some discussion.

AFC East...somebody get the Jets a tourniquet and Joe Namath's phone number. If you're a Jets fan, consider watching a lot of NHL and NBA this winter. Dolphins have some talent but are still trying to find out who they are under the Nick Saban regime. Bills have an electrifying back, but in the end the Patriots will prevail. Despite injuries and adversity, the defending champs will find a way to win the division.

AFC North...Steelers, Steelers, Steelers...with the Bengals nipping at their heels. The Ravens inept offense makes them a non-contender. The Browns exist so other teams don't have to take an extra bye week.

AFC South...Colts almost rule uncontended. Jags will struggle to oppose, but lack depth for an entire season. Titans continue to slide toward the bottom feeders of the league. Texans...see "Browns" above.

AFC West...Oddly enough we all once again realize that there's no "D" in "Kansas City". Raiders will play surprisingly tough but fail. This division will in the end come down to a dog fight between the Broncos and Bolts. The winner? The team who plays a Mile High. The reason? Jake's quit throwing INTs!

NFC East...Not only will the Eagles fail to return to the Super Bowl, but they won't even win the division. Can't go far with an injured QB and no run game to protect him. Redskins...smoke and mirrors. Cowboys have made remarkable strides under Parcels, but aren't there yet. Giants will take this bunch. Every week Eli matures a little more and they have the intangible of playing for a beloved, deceased owner.

NFC North...da Bearz. Nobody else wants the division. Detroit will try...but hey, it's the Lions. Favre will announce his retirement after a record number of sacks and picks. The Vikings will wish they'd taken their little cruise in the Bermuda Triangle.

NFC South...Panthers will edge out the Falcons, whose offensive clout will be hampered by a semi-injured Vick. Saints and Bucs prepare for next storm.

NFC West...perhaps the weakest division in the NFL. Living in Arizona I get to see the Cardinals quite a bit...loaded with talent but perhaps forever cursed. I take air sickness bags to the games. The Niners...will begin to realize that Alex Smith may not be an NFL quarterback. Hard to pick against the Rams...but for some reason I can only see the Seahawks winning this division. THE SEAHAWKS! Oh well, somebodies gotta lose in the first round of playoff, huh?

AFC Wildcards...

Bengals...don't see anyone keeping them out.
Chargers...LT's thrown for as many touchdowns as the Jets!

NFC Wildcards...

Cowboys...yeah, I said "cowboy".
Falcons...Even though they fail to win the division, they will show up for the playoffs.

AFC Champs...Colts

NFC Champs...Giants

NFL Champs...Colts


There...I'm sitting out on a shaky limb. Anyone care to join me?

 

Thanks Hack, I knew someone else had to watch the NFL. Here are my predictions:

AFC East: Pats
AFC North: Steelers
AFC South: Colts
AFC West: Chargers (Broncos always seem to lose 6 of their last 8 games).

Wildcards: Bengals and Jags. The Jags have a ridiculously easy schedule, and should easily win 10, maybe even 11 games.

NFC East: G-men
NFC North: Bears, as they are the least flawed of a set of four flawed teams.
NFC South: Panthers - they should have been the team to beat last year until they set a record for injuries - at one point they had something like 12 injured starting players in one week - hard to win when everyone is hurt.
NFC West: Just like the Broncos in the AFC, the Seahawks choke down the stretch, so I'm going with the Rams.

Wildcards: Falcons and Eagles (the NFC wildcard is going to the birds - ok - bad pun).

Also, to anyone picking a wildcard to come from the AFC East, NFC North, or NFC West - and you know who you are - you are completely insane if you think any of those divisions are producing two playoff teams. All of them are extremely weak divisions, and the only team coming out of there is the one who wins the division.

 

I'm sorry guys I voted but didn't write my predictions down and then got dragged away and forgot about it. The one I know I made and stick to even more now is the Giants winning NFC East and if they stay healthy possibly going all the way. I loved watching them on Sunday keeping the skins to 125 total yards.

 

You all heard it here first, the Colts will win the superbowl. Only problem is that they have not played any "good' team yet, next monday will tell us if they are superbowl quality. (vs the patriots)

 

The only way we would hear it here "first" is if none of us had access to newspapers, television, radio, the internet, or any other form of sports media. Since everyone posting obviously has access to at least the internet, and probably other forms of sports meida listed above, that applies to NO ONE. Everybody is picking the Colts, so unless you came out right after the Pats victory in SB XXXIX, you weren't first.

Go Steelers!

 

The Steelers are pretty much done now for the season, especially since they lost to the who, oh yes the Bengals. This is how it should end up for the NFL for this year.

AFC
North: Bengals
East: PATS
West: Broncos
South: Colts
Wild Card: JAGS
Wid Card: Chargers

NFC
North: Bears
East: Giants
West: Seahawks
South: Panthers

AFC Championship Game:
Bengals vs. Colts
Winners: Bengals (Read NFL article about teams they play each other twice a year and notice the team that lost the first match up tends to win the second)

NFC Championship Game:
Bears vs. Panthers
Winners: Panthers

Superbowl:
Bengals vs. Panthers
Winner: Bengals - They just can get scores vs. top 10 defenses.

 

Seahawks vs Colts in the Superbowl.

The Colts will win.

 

Yeah, it may be safe to assume that we can stick a fork in my beloved Steelers (they may very well be done). However, I do have some hope of them getting the #6 seed. Here's my reasoning - there are currently 4 teams that can be the wild cards - the Jags, Chargers, Chiefs and Steelers. The Jags schedule is really easy after the Colts this weekend. I'm assuming they're going to go 12-4, which would make them a lock for the first wildcard berth. However, the Chiefs schedule is absolutely brutal down the strech. I wouldn't be surprised if they lost at least 2 if not 3 of the last 4. The Chargers don't have a easy schedule either. They still play the Colts in Indianapolis, and the aforementioned Chiefs in Arrowhead (obviously one of them have to lose there). The Steelers also have the tie-breaker over the Chargers as they beat them earlier this year. So, provided the Steelers win out - which is far from certain - I think they can still make the playoffs. If they lose to Da Bears this weekend, then we can really stick a fork in them.

That having been said, I don't see anyone beating the Colts. The only way I feel they will lose a game this year is if they rest players before the playoffs. That, IMO, would be a mistake. You are already going to get a week off with the playoff bye, and coming in rusty can't be good. I think you have to play your starters at least the first half of the remaining games.

 

Yes the colts will loose this year most likely. Dungy is a very smart coach and chances are he will not play the started for all the remaining games after their game this weekend.

As for them loosing in the play off please read the article previously posted on the NFL.com. And if you read the article closely most teams they play each other twice a year split the games. If the Bengals and Colts play again, by that time the Bengals will have a good idea on how the Colts will play them and being indoors could be a good thing for the Bengals.

 

@Abdel - As a long time die-hard NFL fan myself, I know you speak the truth. The chances of beating a team three times in the same year are even slimmer. (But that might be because it doesn't occur that often - it would have to be a division rivalry, and then have those same two teams meet in the playoffs.)

That said, I'm still not entirely sold on the Bengals. Yes, they outplayed the Steelers last week, but when I consider all of the mistakes that the Steelers made - from tournovers, missed field goals, dropped touchdown passes (probably more but that's off the top of my head) - and then consider that the Bengals STILL only won by a touchdown, sorry, but I'm not sold on them. The better teams in the NFL would have blown out the Steelers in a game like that.

The other thing is, unless the Broncos slip up down the stretch, they, and not the Bengals will be the #2 seed (I think Indy being the #1 seed is a given at this point). That means that the Bengals will be home against a wildcard team the first round of the playoffs and then likely have to go on the road consecutive weeks to play Denver and Indy. That's a lot to ask from a young team that has virtually zero playoff experience. So while I can agree to what you're saying, I'm not entirely sure that the Bengals will even GET to the AFC Championship Game to play the Colts.

 

I'm with Aldeth on the Bengals. It's great to see them doing so well, but I worry that the playoffs will be a different animal. So many of the Bengal's wins have been directly due to turnovers...they're a league high +23 now I think. When you combine a significantly reduced turnover incidence in playoff games along with their lack of post-season experience, it might be a hard run for them.

If the season were to end today the Bengals would host San Diego for a game, and if successful they'd travel to Denver to face the Broncos. Very tough to win in Mile High in December...just ask Bernie Kosar.

I'm almost ready to jump on the Seattle bandwagon. Nobody seems to want to give them any love. True, they won a game against the Giants that they probably should have lost...but that incredibly dominating performance against the Eagles on Monday night makes them appear to be peaking at the right time. I can't remember when I've seen one NFL team so totally control an entire game.

I wish the Bears had a little more offense to go along with that incredible defense...

Should be a good weekend of games...lot's of "must wins"

 

Thus far, the Colts have played three teams twice (don't really need to say how that turned out). The hole 'split when facing each other twice in a year' is great statistically -- but then you can say pretty much anything you want to and back it up with statistics. A team like the Colts just blows the statistics apart.

I'm with Aldeth, the Bengels need to win in Denver (tough to do) and in Indianapolis (impossible to do lately). Add to that they will be playing San Diego, Kansas City, or Jacksonville at home. Granted the Colts will be playing a hot New England team, but they shouldn't have much of a problem at home.

The wildcard picture is interesting, especially in the AFC -- San Diego and Kansas City have the most brutal end-of-season I've seen. The Steelers have a shot, but they'll have to go through a healthy New England in the playoffs (I don't see anyone beating the Pats at home right now).

The game on Christmas Eve will be interesting: Colts at Seattle.

 

Actually, the way it is shaping up, the Patriots are more likely to get the Jags. The Patriots are pretty much locked into the #4 seed, meaning they'd get the #5 seed in the playoffs. Given their ridiculously easy end of year schedule, the Jaguars are likely to be the #5. That means that Cincy will get either the Steelers, Chargers or Chiefs. They got rid of that rule that you can't play a divisional opponent in the first round (simply because it is now possible that two wild card teams come out of the same division, in which case they HAVE to play a divisional opponent if their divisional opponent doesn't have a bye). Regardless, the rule is now defunct, so if the Steelers do make the playoffs, they'll be the #6 seed, and they will play the #3 seed, most likely Cincinnati.

As a long-time Steelers fan, I am actually cautiously optimistic about their playoff prospects. If they win their final two games (at Cleveland and home vs. Detroit), then regardless of how the Chargers or Chiefs do, it doesn't matter, the Steelers get in. Both those games are very winnable, and the Steelers will be favored in both games. The game vs. Cleveland may prove challenging, as it is a divisional rivalry, but I definitely don't see the Steelers having any problems against Detroit (and if they lose to Detroit, then they don't deserve to make the playoffs anyway).

The NFC is pretty interesting. Seattle is looking like the #1 seed, but seeds 2-4 are very much up in the air. The other division winners are probably set at this point (most likely Giants, Bears and Panthers) but it's anyone's guess who comes out with the two wildcard spots.

 

Aldeth the Foppish Idiot you hit it pretty much on the noise.

Don't forget the Chiefs and the Charger are playing this weekend. This game could affect next weeks game for Denver and Cinci. If the Chief's win than
Cinci may have a very hard game next weekend. If they loose, than it could be a very easy game. As for Denver, the same is true here. If the Chargers win they will play their best at Denver for the #6 seed which would take your beloved Steelers out of the playoffs. So there are some complication going into this weeks game that could affect the out come for the playoffs.

As for the Steelers I have a feeling the Browns might just be a little too much for them and that wouldn't surprise me one bit.

 

On a sad and tragic note, Tony Dungy's son has just been found dead.

Obviously, Dungy will be away from the Colts for an undetermined time and something like this makes a 'game' pale in importance. Losing a child is a lot like surviving your own death.

I can't help but wonder how this tragedy "off" the field will affect what happens "on" the field.

 

Yes, the Dungy scenario is very sad indeed. I can't see how it is possible for Dungy to even be able to coach the team this weekend. I imagine coaching duties will fall to one of his assistants. If I were Colts ownership, I'd give him a leave of absense until the playoffs start. Even a month of time to grieve probably isn't enough for a loss of this magnitude, but it's the least they can do.

@ Abdel - if the Steelers win their last two games, then the Chargers still need help to be the wildcard, even if they win their last two games.

Here's how it works out: If only the Steelers and Chargers are tied for the last spot, then the Steelers win the tie breaker due to beating the Chargers earlier this year.

However, it's not good for the Steelers if it finishes in a three team tie. For example if both the Steelers and Chargers win their final two games, and the Jaguars lose one of their last two, then we would have three 11-5 teams and only two wildcard spots to put them. Head-to-head matchups can't break this tie as the Chargers didn't play the Jaguars this year. So the next tie breaker is conference record. All of the Steeler's losses have come to teams in the AFC, whereas the Chargers and Jaguars each have one loss to the NFC. Based on conference record, the Steelers lose out and the Jags and Bolts make the playoffs.

Technically, the Chiefs are still eligible as well, but they need the Chargers to lose (and they play them, so they have a hand in that) and the Steelers to lose (which is outside of their control). Still, if it comes down to a three way tie between the Chiefs, Chargers and Steelers, I think the Steelers are the odd team out in that scenario too.

 

How could the chief make it if they loose to the Chargers? They would have to win this weekend game to be in as would the chargers.

What would happen if the Jags loose their last two games and the steelers, Chief and Charger each all win one game of the season. What than?

 

Steelers have a head to head victory over the Chargers, so in event of a tie Steelers in, Chargers out.

ESPN keeps this up to date with each game played and applicable tie-breakers

Y'know...I could actually root for the Bengals if someone would stick a sock in Chad Johnson's mouth

 

@ Abdel - the Chiefs cannot make the playoffs if they lose to the Chargers this weekend. They would be two games behind the final wildcard team with one game left to play. Sorry if I implied otherwise. However, if the Chiefs beat the Chargers this weekend, it is possible that they finish in a tie with the Steelers and Chargers.

Consider this scenario:

Chiefs win their last two.
Chargers lose to Chiefs, then beat the Broncos in Week 17.
Steelers lose to Cleveland this weekend, and beat the Lions (or vice versa)

All three teams would finish at 10-6. Let's assume that the Jaguars win at least one of their last two games and finish at least 11-5. The Jags are then the #5 seed, and there is only one spot left.

I did a little bit of research on this to see what happens if you have a three way tie and two of the three teams are in the same division. It's a little different than the scenario with the Jags, Chargers, Steelers, because in that case all teams are in different divisions, so the conference record is the tie breaker.

When two of the three teams are in the same division, it is first necessary to break the tie in the division. So Chiefs-Chargers tie-breaker would look like this:

1st tie-breaker: Head-to-head record. The Chargers won the first meeting, but in the scenario I posted above, the Chiefs win the second game, so they're 1-1 head-to-head, so tie not broken.

2nd tie-breaker: Divisional Record. Again, with the scenario posted above both teams would finish with identical 4-2 divisional records. Tie still not broken.

3rd tie-breaker: Conference Record. This is where the tie gets broken. The Chiefs would be (using scenario above) 9-3 in conference games, while the Chargers would be 8-4. So the Chiefs would beat the Chargers and be considered the 2nd place team in the West.

Then, to determine the final spot in the playoffs, the Chiefs would go to a tie breaker with the Steelers.

1st tie-breaker: Head-to-head. The Chiefs and Steelers did not play this year, so we skip this step.

2nd tie-breaker: Conference Record (skip division record tie breaker because they aren't in the same division). The Steelers divisional record would be 7-5, and the Chiefs would be 9-3. So Chiefs win the tie breaker and are the 6th seed, while the Steelers go play golf.

Now onto your next question which basically comes down to what if the Chargers, Chiefs, Steelers and Jags all finish tied at 10-6? Well, using the same rules I listed above, the Chiefs would beat out the Chargers, and be the 2nd place team behind Denver in the West. Then we'd compare the Chiefs, Steelers and Jags. The Chiefs did not play either the Jags or Steelers this year, so head-to-head is out the window. Then, we'd look at Conference Record, and the Chiefs would be 9-3, and if the Jags lose thier last two, they'd be 7-5, as would the Steelers, so the Chiefs would be in and the Jags and Steelers out.

So to summarize - the Chiefs own all the tie-breakers, but they are one game behind the Steelers and Chargers, and two games behind the Jaguars. So they need to win their last two, and have two of those other three teams lose to get to the point where they would finish in a tie, which is unlikely to occur. It is much more likely that the three teams vying for the last 2 spots are the Steelers, Chargers, and Jags. The breakdown of tie breakers works like this:

Chiefs-Anybody else - Chiefs (but tie with Chiefs unlikely)
Jags-Chargers - Chargers
Jags-Steelers - Jags
Steelers-Chargers - Steelers
Steelers-Chargers-Jags - Jags and Chargers.

Confused yet?

[ December 23, 2005, 14:56: Message edited by: Aldeth the Foppish Idiot ]