Egypt Erupting

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I'm amazed no one has started a topic on this yet (or on the Tunisia govt. overthrow from a few weeks ago, for that matter).

 

While I am not ignorant of the situation, I am ignorant of the events that led up to this point. I fail to see why or what the overthrow of the government in Tunisia has to do with this, other than goegraphic proximity. As far as I am aware, Mubarak is an autocrat, and has been for years. What sparked the uprising?

 

I think that over the last few years Mubarak has been doing some pretty erratic crap. I taught an immigrant from Egypt, a Coptic Christian, and he said that Mubarak is a grade A piece of camel dung. In addition, there are rumblings that the guy wants to pass on leadership of the country to his son. Some Egyptians want at least a show of democracy, it seems.

I don't claim to know a heck of a lot, but as an example, a while back the Egyptian government slaughtered all the pigs in Egypt as a response to "swine flu", which was a move not grounded in realistic scientific fears. it turns out it was a way to screw with the country's Christian community. Thing is, that community provided the garbage pickup for major Egyptian cities, and they fed the garbage to their pigs -- it's how they made a living, and everyone benefitted. With no reason to continue doing garbage pickup, things got disgusting very quickly, and a move designed to hurt a visible minority ended up inconveniencing everyone.

 

The events in Tunisia don't have a direct link to what's going on in Egypt, that's true. But the people of Tunisia showed the people of the Arab world that a united opposition can overthrow an unpopular, dictatorial government. In essence, Tunisia was in many ways the inspiration for the current breakout in Egypt. This hasn't gone unnoticed by other Arab leaders, either - which is why many of them are cracking down on dissent at the moment to try to prevent another Tunisia from happening in their own country. Problem is, that very brutality is what is prompting the escalation in Egypt right now.

The next few months will be interesting indeed in that part of the world, I think.

 

While it would be great if the countries of the middle east overthrew their dictators I can see no other outcome of that than them descending into religious fundamentalism and a theocratic dictatorship like Iran. The non-islamic opposition to the dictators is weak and disorganised but I hope I am wrong.

I must say that I do find it refreshing to see it yet again proven that no dictator should sleep easy, they are all riding a tiger and as soon as it figure out that it can turn around the dictator and his cronies are always toast.

 

I have no problem with vicious, selfish douchebags of dictators getting what they deserve. The problem is that in the process and aftermath, a whole lot of innocent people get killed, and all too often another totalitarian, oppressive regime replaces the old one, meaning in a way that the lives lost were for nothing, in that no improvement was made.

Meet the new boss, same as the old boss . . . .

All animals are equal, but some animals are more equal than others . . .

 

Totally agreed. Though they weren't at first, the Muslim Brotherhood has become a major presence in the protests. I find this very troubling.

 

I don't know a great number of details about the Muslim Brotherhood you refer to, but if they are becoming a major factor in the demonstrations, that tells me they know an opportunity when they see one! If they are Islamists (which seems likely given the name) that doesn't bode well for Egypt.

 

Boy are they ever. Hopefully their impact will be minimal and they won't hijack the movement. Mohammad al Baradei, the nobel laureate, is essentially the leader of the opposition movement, and he's no islamist. Still, things could get ugly and no one can predict the outcome. We'll have to keep watching.

 

Yes god forbid people should try to make their live better something bad my happen , instead of supporting them we are just afraid that they might bring political instability or another dictator ,great attitude there.

 

I think what happens in Egypt will largely depend on what happens to Mohammad al Baradei, and what he does if he makes it through. I'm betting that, if the government falls, there'll be a conflict between Baradei and the fundamentalists. I think we can all hope together that Baradei wins.

While I don't know enough about Baradei to compare him to any founders of anything, much less those of our nation, Nobel laureates are generally are a cut above. While his prize was a peace prize (which isn't worth much these days, and I'd have been more comfortable with one of the science prizes), he won it as head of the IAEA. In his first speech as director general of the IAEA in '97, he said:

Remove the 'international' and that's a principle you could found a democracy on.

 

I wouldn't call it pure opportunism, LKD. Actually, this might be one of the major dilemmas of emerging democracies - that the "wrong" people might get elected. If, say, 10% of the Egyptian electorate supports the ideas the MB stands for, I'd expect that to be reflected in any fair election.

As I see it, Mubarak - as well as the former Tunisian president - oppressed all who disagreed with the course the regime was taking, including (most likely) religious fundamentalists. I consider it quite plausible that there is strongly religious minority which identifies with the MB or whatever other Islamist organization exists in Tunisia, and they would push for the removal of the old regime and a democratic election (at least as a first step) - they can only win. How things will go later is another story - I don't think they are all that likely to win (there are other factors into play there), but yes, they might make politics in those countries a lot more dynamic and less predictable.

 

Just remember what happened with Lebanon. It could happen again.

 

A lot of things happened in Lebanon, and for quite a few reasons. Sure, things can definitely get bad - but I'm wary of extending parallels across countries and automatically presuming similar outcomes. Lebanon isn't quite the same as Egypt, and even small differences can make a big difference.

On the other hand, backing the likes of Mubarak just because their "oppressees" include even worse thugs (by our understanding) poses a few problems of its own.

 

When did I say people SHOULDN'T try to make their lives better? I just advocate thinking things through before taking action. Forethought is vital to any successful plan for change.

 

I just get the feeling that if this revolution would hapen lets say in Iran or Libya it would get allot more support and allot less fear and dout .We are willing to let dictators stay in power or even enable them as long as they don't hurt oar interests or they help oar agendas.

 

There is definitely some truth in that. Mubarak has been in power for years, and yet Egypt has largely been an ally of the US throughout his reign.

 

Jimmy Carter is to Iran as Barack Obama is to Egypt. I find the similarities amazing.

 

The sad fact is that if the US only made friends with democratic nations, they wouldn't have many friends, especially in some key geographic locations. So, yeah, they crawl into bed with some pretty unsavory types when it's politically advantageous to do so. That's true for all nations, I believe. I'm pretty idealistic in a lot of ways, but idealism can only take you so far before reality hits.

This brings to mind a quote attributed to JFK, though I don't know the accuracy of that claim. The idea it espouses is true regardless of who said it:

You can call me pessimistic or make fun of my attitude or whatever, but the fact is that there is no nation on this planet with can just swoop in and fix everything in 22 minutes (8 for commercials) with everything happening happily ever after. Not gonna happen, ever.