Canadian Politics?

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AS an offshoot of the Random Political venting thread:

Splunge asked if anyone thought there would be an election in Canada soon.

My answer is no.

While this is a hot topic in Canada, as the Liberals, NDP and Bloc want Canadian troops out of Afghanistan, the fact that the Conservatives made it a confidence measure means that they won't have the balls to call him on it.

The reason that they will blink and give Harper pretty much what he wants with a few revisions is that Stephane Dion is a wiener, Jack Layton is a Joke, and the Bloc only runs candidates in one province. The result is a Conservative Majority, and they know it.

 

Won't the troops likely come home if the U.S. pulls out? I fully expect the troops from the US will be coming home about one year from now.

 

No way the troops would come home right after a U.S. pullout. That would make Canada look like a U.S. lapdog, and while that is the sad truth, the APPEARANCE of not being one is vital to the political health of our elected representatives.

I foresee a dropped writ of election (Federal) in the late summer, early fall. Harper has to have time to start shelling out the bribes to the electorate (using our tax dollars) and that'll take a few months.

On another note, there is at present an election underway in Alberta. The Progressive Conservatives have been in power here for over 35 years, and that does not look likely to change. The leaders of both the NDP and the Liberal parties are about as interesting and inspiring as last week's toilet paper and so "Steady Eddie" Stelmach (who is also not exactly dripping with charisma) will waltz into another 4-5 years of governance based on name recognition and uneducated partisanship. I'll save further comments for when this post has been responded to by my fellow Canucks.

 

Progressive conservatives, eh? How does that actually work out in practice?

 

This is Afghanistan, not Iraq. I've actually hears someone here talking about the US expanding presence in Afghanistan...

About as well as any other political party...

 

Oh sure. And after I said I didn't think it was worth starting a new thread.

Anyway, while there has been some talk in the last day or so about the Liberals voting against the upcoming budget, I suspect they won't unless the budget contains some stuff they just can't accept (and I mean really can't accept, not just the usual huffing and puffing). There's too much disagreement in the Liberal ranks over whether they are ready for an election.

As for Alberta, I don't see voters there ever switching from the Conservatives; the party would have to do something monumentally stupid for that to happen.

 

I was going to respond there, but I saw that you were instructed not to sidetrack the topic they were discussing, so I started this thread.

Dion is still thumping his chest. At what point does Harper just call his bluff and ride the momentum (and potential backlash against the Liberals) to a majority government?

 

Just out of curriosity, how exactly does an election in Canada become a possibility? I mean, here in the US there's automatically an election at the end of every serving member's term of service, be it president, senator, or county sherriff. If the president is for whatever reason removed from office, there's a whole chain of succession to fill his place for the remainder of his term, and I believe there are similar measures for members of Congress, though I'm not sure.

 

It's because they have a minority government I believe, or if not that then a coalition government. The government has to have the support of the parliament in order to remain functional, without that support the government dissolves and either a new coalition is formed or a new election called. I'm not sure who makes the call for the re-election but I'd imagine it's the prime minister.

It's a bit more complex in Canada since the parliament is formed of more than one parties and several of the parties are forced to co-operate in order to govern because no single party has a 50%+1 majority of the parliamentary seats. If the co-operation between the governing parties fail it will usually end up with a vote of mistrust in the parliament which dissolves the government.

 

I still haven't figured out why a thread about Random "anything" has to stick to one topic. Doesn't seem very random to me. Oh well, I don't make the rules, I only follow 'em (when I want to, that is )

@ NOG + Morgoroth

Previously in Canada, the party in power had to call an election within 5 years of the previous election, but it was up to them when that happened within that 5 years. Usually, it was closer to 4 years. Recently the rules changed, and now an election is to be held in October of the 4th calendar year following the previous election.

The exception is if the party in power is defeated by a vote in the House of Commons. Realistically, this only happens when there is a minority government (ie. holds less than 50% of the seats), like we have now.

 

Splunge, I was unaware of that change in the policy of elections. That must apply only to the federal government, though, because here in Alberta, the Premier decides when the writ of election will be dropped. This policy must have a redeeming quality but I don't see it -- IMHO it merely gives the governing party an unfair advantage because they can tailor the election dates to coincide with when things are going well for them. That has always struck me as an unfair advantage.

That said, though, we can start, run and finish a provincial election in a little over a month. I think the last federal one took about 2 months. Pretty efficient and about as democratic in practice as the Presidential system. Both systems have flaws but are IMHO about as democratic as a representative democracy for a large country can get.

That said, let me break down the LKD vote decision mechanism. The Tories (Progressive Conservatives) are not the brightest candles on the cake. At the present time they hold 61 seats in the legisllature. Lack of any serious, powerful opposition has made them weak, lazy and feeling entitled. As the previous Premier bragged as he retired "I didn't have a plan to deal with the influx of wealth into the province, ha ha, I just kind of rolled with it!" What a jackass, if you'll pardon my French. So I'm not fond of the Tories, even though my ideological leanings tend strongly to the right.

So how about the Grits (Liberals), Canada's pragmatic centrist party? They have 16 seats at the present time. Well, Kevin Taft is highly intelligent -- anyone who knows of him knows that he's got a doctorate degree -- it says so on his card! Pompous jerk. He has all the charisma of wet plaster, and his "plans" don't seem to me to be any better developed than those of the Tories. Most Albertans (according to some straw surveys I have seen) don't even recognize his picture.

Next, my friends in the NDP. They hold a whopping 4 seats at the moment. They are leftists and as such I could never vote for them even if there were a gun to my head. Neither would most Albertans. Every NDP government we've seen in other provinces has taxed and spent to the hilt, and then wondered why business leaves the province and the people are upset with massive government deficits.

The other parties (Green, Alliance, etc) are a complete and utter joke. The leader of the Alliance is a Mormon like myself but he's also, sadly, a complete idiot. Not that I'm judgemental or anything

So how will I vote? I'm voting for the Independent fellow in my riding. He's the only Independent who presently holds a seat, and having talked with his campaign, he truly seems to care about the people in his riding and has been able to get the area things it needs. My vote for him is a protest vote against the lazy Tories while at the same time not endorsing an ideology I hate. Not that anyone cares how I will vote, of course, but just some musings on Canadian politics I thought might interest some.

 

Despite the fact that I hold some strongly leftist views, I really don't agree with a lot of the NDP's political choices(strange as that sounds). I DEFINATELY don't have any feel for the Conservatives; they drive me up the wall. The Liberal Party in my eyes works the most effectively with Canada because it represents a majority of people's mindsets.

Also, what makes the Green Party a joke? I actually support this group.

 

I think they go overboard with environmental concerns, to the point of threatening the economic viability of the area they seek to represent. I'd like to see them represented in government, but I don't want them in power...

 

For those few who care, the Alberta, Canada election took place yesterday. Here's what happened, folks!:

The Progressive Conservative got its 11th consecutive majority government in AB. They have been in power for 37 years, and with this election win they will break the 40 year mark. This is longer than I've been alive. Wow. They took 73 of the 83 seats in the Alberta Legislature. The Liberals (deeply distrusted in Alberta for a variety of reasons) dropped from 16 to 8 seats, and the New Democratic Party (also deeply distrusted here) went from 4 seats to 2, losing official party recognition for not being able to get at least 3 seats in the Legislature. The one Independent member (from my own constituency, oddly enough) lost his seat and Hinman, the Mormon whackjob (the man is a disgrace to my religion) who was the 'leader' of a fringe party of ULTRA right wingers also lost his seat in Southern Alberta. I'm not shedding any tears about THAT one, let me tell you. However, the PCs now have a ridiculously large majority and the opposition is weak and small. Even though I am PC, I do not think this is a good situation.

No one expected this blowout. The PCs went in with 61 seats. Most people expected them to win but to lose about 10 seats while doing it, going to a 50 seat out of 83 majority. Most people thought "Steady Eddie" would alienate the PC core. Most people thought the Liberals would make inroads in Edmonton and Calgary. Most people thought that Hinman the fringe psycho would keep his seat and maybe even garner another. Most people thought the Greens would garner a bit more of the popular vote than the under 6% they did. Most people were WRONG!! What a blowout. The biggest majority in the recent past has been 2001 when Eddie's predecessor wone 74 seats. I am seriously shocked.

 

How bad can the guy be?

 

Although he did a not too bad job in the leadership debate, the fact is that he came across to a lot of people in earlier attempts as a fascist, sexist bigot. In a province where even many right of centre folks are worried that the province has swung too far to the right, him piping up and saying we need to move WAY to the right was just not something that Albertans were willing to take seriously.

One reporter a year or so ago said "Hinman couldn't lead a high school football team to a whorehouse." That one cracked me up.

 

Like I said earlier, I expected the PC's to win, but I don't follow Alberta politics closely enough to say that the margin of victory was a surprise to me.

 

Well, for students of international politics as well as my fellow Canadians, today is a big day for the Federal Liberals. They hold the 4 ridings that are running by-elections today. Can they retain their hold? If they can, it'll be a bit of a boost for Liberal Leader Stephane Dion. If they lose ANY of those seats, it'll be a huge blow to his hopes of winning a Federal election should he choose to force one. Of course, it seems that these 4 seats are Liberal strongholds, but one never knows . . .

If any of my Canuck friends have any thoughts, let me know. Otherwise, I'll just put in my two cents worth tomorrow when the votes are tallied.

 

Well, I'm no fan of the Liberals, so I hope that they lose all four. But I don't like majority governemtns, so I hope that Dion doesn't topple the government unless Harper gets too far out of line...

 

Well, the Liberals lost one of the four seats but retained the other three. IMHO this is bad news for Dion as in the current minority government every seat counts, and this says that even in ridings considered safe he can get thumped. With any luck this'll make him think twice before forcing an election before autumn.