China the next superpower?

I thought that them being the new S-Power was a done deal, and just a matter of time till the rest of the world realized it!


Good/Bad?
Who knows.
I'm afraid, that my generation will witness all of it. For better or Worse.

 

In the last 35 years or so, the government/society of China has brought more people out of bone-grinding poverty than any other institution on the face of the Earth. And you know what they haven't done since becoming powerful? Drop bombs. That's two big thumbs up there.

Will they become another USA? No. There just isn't enough oil or pollution capacity left in the world. If China and the US one day become economically equivalent, it will be either at below current per capita levels or in a world with significantly different infrastructure-based technology.

 

Without a doubt. Theyre not far off now, either.

Weird country is China.

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Are we sure they're not already?

 

China may not have dropped bombs on other countries, but they've been pretty good at oppressing and harming their own citizens. Look up how they've beaten and tortured the practitioners of the peaceful faith of Falun Gong for a decent example. A point that no one has seemed to bring up yet is the idea of the Chinese workers standing up for a better life than the just-above-slavery lifestyle that they have to endure now. Their economy is becoming more and more open and capitalistic by the day, and the conditions they live in now are similar (but slightly better due to better technology) to the conditions of working people in Europe and America during the industrial revolution and the centuries after, with a small minority growing fabulously wealthy off the backs of a poor and slave-like working class (could it be said that early capitalism and industrial society is lawful evil then? ). And as workers in those countries banded together and formed unions to strengthen their place in society and get rid of things like child labor, we will most likely see that in China as well, with the american based companies there probably leaving to find someone else to exploit.

Thoughts?

 

This seems like a conversation for Dangerous Angles rather than Lingering Sighs.....

That said it is a good conversation to have.

China is a rising power-that much is a given.

This often leads to war between established and new powers however both the USA and China can look at the example of British and German powers to see what a World War (or 2) did to them.

China hasn't dropped a bomb, however it is increasing the funds for Navy and Nuclear..... the former can be claimed to just be aimed at Taiwan or so that it can join the rest of the world in policing trade routes that it benefits from. However that expansion in funding for Nuclear Weapons is hard to justify when established powers are thinking of reducing the number of nukes they hold.

China may well surpass the US in the size of its economy-leading to a comparable military.

Its current military is currently in defensive positions (with exceptions to various islands around SE Asia).

That may stay the same or change in the future.

One thing it will be interesting to see China deal with is its own version of a Social Security crisis. China currently has a large bulge in its workforce with a big bump in working age people compared to older crowds (in need of more health services & retirement homes) and young people (in need of schools and educational services). So China is currently benefiting from a bump of the number of people who make money for the economy and don't necessarily require as many services. That could change in the future.

Something that does concern me is that China still has a totalitarian/dictatorial government that doesn't necessarily want to reform itself into a democracy.

It could be trying to become a capitalist authoritarian state rather than a communist one-but both are authoritarian.

Perhaps the best hope is from internal pushes from workers who don't want to be treated badly. They may be pushing for better conditions and pay rather than a direct vote at the moment but over time I wonder if that will change to a vote.

I think China will become a power. The question is what does the rest of the world look like in relation to that power.

The US may be scaled back but will likely still exist as a power. And other SE Asian states may join in greater cooperation with each other in order to avoid being overshadowed by that power.

Though some may opt instead to try to mirror China and benefit from its coat-tails I don't know what the likelihood of that happening is.

I see China as a rising power and would not fear it as much if it had respect for political and human rights-but if it will in the near future is still a big question.

 

I think it depends on how you define superpower. In all things except their military, I'd say they are already there. (And yes, they certainly have the manpower for a modern military, and yes, they have nukes, but I don't think they have much in the way of high tech tanks, planes, subs, etc.)

 

That's interesting ... I had thought they pretty much were considered a super power. (I had aslo thought - and maybe I was wrong - that the term was military-based.) Doesn't the US go into atrial fibrillation at the thought of a conflict with China?

 

Yeah, they are underrated because they don't have near as much expansionism in their foreign policy -- you don't see Chinese troops in Europe or Africa under any circumstances. God knows they are powerful any way you cut it -- economically, militarily, socially -- they hold a lot of power. No country on the planet really wants to mix it up with them too much, because even if you were to win against the Chinese, you'd lose -- you'd be bled so dry you'd never recover.

 

I guess that's why we usually stick with the smaller, more manageable countries to be 'Axes of Evil' members, here in the US. We'd have to have giant nads to put China in there, so whatever humanitarian issues they have or atrocities they commit are not really a big deal.

 

File that one under "Fight the fights you know you can win!"

 

No - it's because they are Evil ... EVIL TO THE COAR! We stamp out evil wherever it exits, provided it is in Iraq.

 

I'm not sure I'd rank China as an economic superpower. They are far behind the US or EU in terms of GDP and are very close to Japan. Certainly they can't compete with the US dominance as of yet in that regard. Their economy is largely dependent upon exports to western countries and their domestic markets are woefully underdeveloped. They have huge currency reserves yes but they are largely bound to do so in order to stimulate their export based economy. If they'd let their currency float their competitiveness in the international markets would suffer significantly. A move to protectionism in the west would also be a disaster for China. Also the imbalance between the rural and urban economies in China is a major problem as their agricultural sector is badly undeveloped and China is practically importing food in order to feed everyone. In my opinion many are greatly overestimating the power of the Chinese economy and fail to see the clay feet of the colossus.

 

They are improving vastly. Working in the Aerospace industry, we have a ton of safeguards against turning over technology, as we get hit contstantly with Chinese cyber attacks. As does the USG. The news that was released this weekend regarding technology theft by the USG was nothing new in our industry. I can't speak about tanks as I have no knowledge about the chinese technology regarding them, but they do have proto-type Stealths already made.

 

China will collapse. Had a bet running with my dad the past five or so years that they'll be a completely different entity by 2050. Either educated masses that are needed to power an economic boom will step up and ask for democracy, or the outskirts will splinter. It just takes one spark - look what happened in North Africa earlier this year.

 

I still think this thread should be in Dangerous Angles.





Maybe Rotku and maybe not.

China does face severe internal issues but we don't know, yet, if they will force collapse or reform on China.

While N. African dictatorships are falling I would point out few, if anyone, knew if they wouldn't last 4 more years let alone 40.

They have seen the bad example provided by Iran's past so they may be less likely to have one dictatorship rise up after another is overthrown but still China hasn't had anything resembling a democracy within the lifetime of the vast majority of its citizens and the closest thing to one China did have (I think in the first half of the 20th Century was very short lived (under cut by rivalries internally between fascists and communists-neither of which were strongly for giving people voting abilities).

Now maybe China will collapse or reform itself into a democracy. But it doesn't seem likely within the next 10 years.

 

No chance -- China is a vastly different culture, and while they may slowly morph, the Chinese empire will not fragment.

 

Part of the reason I think this belongs in Dangerous Angles is because this discussion involves a lot more than republicans vs Democrats and so on.

International History is one of them.

LKD you are correct that the empire isn't likely to break up.

However there are places that would certainly find the idea of independence tempting. There is Tibet (where the Han Chinese appear to have been colonizing to the displeasure of locals), there is another province (Xinjiang?) which is majority muslim and has cultural differences with the rest of China.

Both of these are in China's far west.

Off China's SE coast there is Taiwan-which is functionally an independent country no matter what the official line is.

Plus there are islands in the South China Sea where both China and Taiwan plus at least 2 other nations have competing claims-so this is much more an international disagreement rather than internal.

Speaking of which have China and India settled territorial disagreements since the 2 had a war around the 1960s or 70s?


Sorry, straying from the internal to the international.

But yes China has big issues, many of which are internal. I don't know well it will handle those which could have an important impact on China's future.