Contender or Pretender NFL 2006

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OK, it's that time of year again! Anyone want to go balls out on predictions before the year even starts?

I'll take the AFC division winners as:

Miami
Pittsburgh
Denver
Indianapolis
with New England and Cincinnati as Wild Cards (yeah, I know, that's pretty boring - I have 5 of the 6 playoff teams from last year returning in the AFC.)

For the NFC:

New York (Giants of course)
Detroit (Kitna is better than people think, especially with Mike Martz running the offense, which is where his talent lies - as a coordinator not a head coach)
Carolina
Seattle
with Dallas and Philadelphia as Wild Cards. (So 3 returning from last year and 3 new teams.)

 

AFC

New England
Pittsburgh
Jacksonville
San Diego
with Miami and Baltimore as the wild cards

NFC

New York/Philadelphia
Chicago
Carolina
Seattle
with New York/Philadelphia and Dallas as the Wild Cards

I'm finding it hard to separate the Giants and Eagles, normally I'd just go Giants, but their schedule is tough this year. If you force me to pick I'll go New York, since the Mets have stuned me this season with how well they are playing. Sadly like the Giants, the Mets may win their league/conference but they are going to lose the big one.

EDIT: Oooops

[ September 08, 2006, 23:40: Message edited by: DarkStrider ]

 

Well, I'll let you waffle on Philly and the Giants, but you got to change that Denver pick. Denver is not in the NFC, but the AFC West. Perhaps you meant Dallas?

 

NFC:
Dallas
Minnesota
Carolina
Seattle
Wildcards: Philidelphia, Detroit

AFC:
New England
Cincinnati
Indianapolis
San Diego
Wildcards: Denver, Miami

Seattle over San Diego in the Superbowl.

 

Well, every week in the NFL is another example of the good, the bad, and the ugly.

I'd like to nominate Cincinnati and Baltimore for the good this week, Green Bay for the bad (really bad), and New England for the ugly (as in winning ugly).

 

I would have to agree with you on all of those....although cincinatti didn't really look all that good....Kansas City just looked that bad..

My Picks

AFC
Pittsburgh
Jacksonville
New England/Miami(they looked great against The Burgh btw.)
San Diego

Cincinatti and Inianapolis wild cards

NFC

New York
Carolina
Arizona
Detroit (agree with aldeth,he showed promise in the playoffs last year)

Seattle and St. Louis wild cards

Arizona is my surprise pick for this year. They really bulked up this year and if and I emphasize IF Kurt Warner stays healthy it will be hard to stop that offense.

[ September 13, 2006, 04:23: Message edited by: LoS_DrIzZt4 ]

 

I have to go back on my selection of Green Bay as the worst of week 1 - they were the worst team that played on Sunday. The worst team, after taking last night into consideration, is the Oakland Raiders. Aaron Brooks had 68 yards passing. Their leading rusher managed 35 yards, and their leading receiver 47 (which is actually a little impressive, considering they only totalled 68). They had 10 possessions, which resulted in 9 punts and one lost fumble. Thanks for showing up.

I actually think making predictions are a little easier this year than most years, as I can't remember the last time that I saw this many teams that are just flat out bad, and have no chance to make the playoffs.

To wit, in the AFC, I'd eliminate:

Bills, Jets, Browns, Texans, Titans, Raiders and now the Chiefs right off the bat. If Culpepper continues to play like he did against the defending SUPER BOWL CHAMPION PITTSBURGH STEELERS, we can add them to that list too. In the AFC, we can already eliminate 7 of the 16 teams as having no chance. That means that of the 9 remaining teams that have a chance, 6 of them are going to make the playoffs.

And we can even clarify a little more than that. The Ravens are much improved, but I can't see them being better than either Cincinnati or Pittsburgh.

The Chargers are in an odd spot too, with deciding to go with Phillip Rivers as their QB. Overall, I like the Chargers. LT is one of the best RBs in the game, and Antonio Gates is a great target for the young Rivers. It just seems like that whenever you go with a first year starter, there are a couple of games you lose that you could have won had a more experienced QB been playing. So I can't see them getting in either.

The NFC is not much better. While I can really only see three teams that are going to be really bad, namely the Packers, Saints and 49ers, there are a whole bunch of incomplete teams in the NFC that should make the few complete teams have a good go of it.

While both the Rams and the Cardinals are going to be better than the 49ers, Seattle is still far and away the class of the NFC West.

Despite the win last night, the Vikings are a team that is rebuilding, and really don't have an identity at this point, with no real playmakers on either side of the ball. 8-8 seems about the best you can reasonably hope for there. The Packers stink out loud. So that's a two team race.

Carolina was hurt by the loss of Steve Smith opening day, and I certainly think they are a better team than they showed on Sunday. Same goes for Tampa. And, despite the win, I still don't see Michael Vick as a championship caliber QB. Still, I must admit you got three potential playoff clubs there.

The NFC East is a complete mess at this point, and I'm not prepared to write off any of them at this point. About the only thing that I can dispute is the NFC East being the best division in the league. I think it's more accurate to say that it is the most competitive division in the league. That because I don't see any of those 4 teams (Redskins, Eagles, Giants, Cowboys) as being great. It's just that none of them are bad. I think what you have is 4 average to slightly above average teams, that make for an extremely competitive (but not extremely good) division.

I see the NFC playing out very similarly to last year. I think that Seattle is slightly better than most of the rest of the NFC, and has the advantage of playing in a division that is not very competitive. They are the only team in the NFC that can say they are clearly bettter than the rest of their division, and that usually translates into home field advantage in the post season. While I don't think Seattle is great, they sure are tough to beat when they're at home.

[ September 12, 2006, 16:21: Message edited by: Aldeth the Foppish Idiot ]

 

I don't know about seattle being all that great honestly. Last year they had a pathetically easy schedule. This year the teams in their division have made some key pickups on both sides.

Arizona is going to have a top 5 offense this year with Warner, Boldin, Fitzgerald, and James with a solid O-line. They have an average defense. a little above average secondary imo with Rolle and Griffith, and a fairly level front 7

St. Louis still has a very potent offense. This year they have a fairly solid secondary, especially with Chavous in there. Teams will think twice before putting the ball over the middle with him there, and they have a solid pass rush with Leanord Little in their, and the rest of their D is average.

And I really have to agree with you there on Oakland...Al davis hasn't figured out that all-star players doesn't mean all-star team

 

I don't think they are that great either. Again, their schedule is one of the easiest in the league. Outside of the teams in their division which they will place twice each, their home games include: Giants, Minnesota, Oakland, Green Bay, and San Diego. Other than the Giants, I don't see a playoff team there. Not to mention they have both Oakland and Green Bay on the schedule who are going to compete all year for the title of worst in the NFL. Their away schedule is definitely more fearsome, which includes Detroit, Chicago, Kansas City, Denver, and Tampa. Presumably at least two of those clubs are going to finish the season with winning records.

I also don't think Chicago is as good as a lot of people seem to think. That defense is fearsome, but their division is super weak. I can easily see them winning the division again, and then getting the boot in their first playoff game, just like last year.

Maybe I'm too hooked by what I saw at the end of last year, but to me, the number of potentially great teams in the entire NFC = 0. They have a lot of good teams, but the best in the NFC aren't as good as the best in the AFC. Just like I thought the AFC would beat the NFC in the Super Bowl last year, regardless of what the matchup turned out to be.

 

Yea I completely agree with you. For the past 3-4 years I've thought of the superbowl more along the lines of who's gonna win the AFC championship, which is kind of sad.

hmm looks like Troy Pololmalu is going to start Sunday. That's good I was getting worried.

Make your picks for this week. Mine are Bolded.

Buffalo at Miami
Carolina at Minnesota
Cleveland at Cincinnati
Detroit at Chicago
Houston at Indianapolis
New Orleans at Green Bay
N.Y. Giants at Philadelphia
Oakland at Baltimore
Tampa Bay at Atlanta
Arizona at Seattle
St. Louis at San Francisco
Kansas City at Denver
New England at N.Y. Jets
Tennessee at San Diego
Washington at Dallas

[ September 15, 2006, 17:09: Message edited by: LoS_DrIzZt4 ]

 

Sorry, didn't see you make the picks. As it is after the fact at this point, I won't bother. (Although I bet you I'll go 16-0 for the week!)

Anyway, the week 2 edition of the good, the bad, and the ugly:

Good - Jacksonville. While the Steelers didn't seem to have their best game, it is still impressive to shut out another pro team. Sadly, the quality defensive performance by the Steelers was wasted. I'm not taking anything away from the Jags here, but when you're defense hold the other team to 9 points, there's really no excuse - you should win that game. The Jags defense was certainly impressive, and outplayed the Steelers defense. I just have a problem accepting that they are *that* good. I think it was a combination of a superior defensive effort combined with an off-night for Big Ben, who was running a high grade fever.

Bad - Raiders. I fully recant my statement from last week that the Packers were potentially the worst team in the league. No, that distinction falls to the Raiders. There are other 0-2 teams in the league, but most of the other teams can at least claim to have been competitive in at least one of their two games.

Ugly - Lions. Actually, just Roy Williams, the best WR on the Lion's staff. For those that don't know, he guaranteed his team would beat the Bears this weekend. Not only couldn't he back up his words on the field (he had a less than spectacular game), not only were the Lions unable to beat the Bears, the Lions proceeded to get their butts kicked all over the field. Don't predict victory and then get blown out - very poor form.

 

I think it was a combination factor. Roethlisberger was making alot of off passes, over throwing, underthrowing etc. IIRC they said that he had 105 fever before the game started last night...which should mean that he needed to be in the hospital. The receivers were dropping balls that were catchable, and Parker couldn't figure out that cutting into Jacksonville's d-line when the outside was wide open doesn't work.

I think having Polamalu injured hurt the pass defense quite a bit. He wasn't running coverage at all, because he wasn't using his right arm. But I'm not going to make excuses for it...Jacksonville played a hell of a game, the Steelers just weren't up to standard last night.

 

It's definitely true that Roethlisberger wasn't getting any help from his receivers. Yes, he was off on several throws, but most of the bad throws were late in the game, when they had to pass on every down. There were several other throws that were definitely catchable, that were flat out dropped. And those drops occurred in the first half, when they weren't in must-pass situations. The bomb to Ward that was overthrown by about 6 inches also hurt a lot.

I don't even know why Polamalu was playing last night. You aren't doing your team any favors when you are trying to tackle with one arm, and can't defend passes particularly well either. I am convinced that the one pass he broke on in the 4th quarter was an interception-touchdown if he had use of his right arm. It was when Jacksonville was backed up deep in their own territory, and they did that quick screen pass to the wide receiver. Polamalu broke on it and knocked it down. It would have been intercepted if his right arm was usable, and the only person who could have stopped him from returning it for a touchdown was Leftwich - and I don't think he could have caught him.

 

I know... I feel pretty much the same way. But I don't think that they have anyone else who can play the postion, or at least noone that has any experience there.

 

Week 3 addition:

Good - Indianapolis. That Jaguars team looked very, very, good the first two weeks of the season, handily defeating both the Cowboys and Steelers. They were very game in this contest, but Indianapolis still came out on top.

Bad - New York Giants. They were behind 21-0 before the frist quarter ended. At one point they were behind 42-3. The final score of 42-30 was not indicative of how one sided this game was. A few late scores that really meant nothing were the only thing that made this game appear to be much closer than what it was.

Ugly - Arizona. You gotta feel bad for the Cardinals. You recover a fumble with under 2 minutes remaining, and you are already in field goal range. The only thing you need to do is run a few plays so that you use up all of the remaining time in the game. And then you proceed to fumble the ball back to St. Louis and it's game over.

 

I'm looking forward to the Bears-Seahawks game. Even without Alexander I think the Seahawks have the edge (he really hasn't been a factor thus far this season). This is a double-bonus game for me -- I've been a Seahawks fan for ~20 years now AND I'm an 'anybody who is playing against the Bears' fan.

Hmmm... haven't seen many posts about the Steelers lately....

 

Steelers are looking like ****...they normally start slow so I'm not too worried, and Big Ben looked better last week than the week before. Hopefully Roethlisberger( I still hate trying to spell that) and Polamalu can get recovered over this weeks bye and come back strong in week 5.

 

@Los,

As a fellow Steelers fan, I can sympathise, but I'm not pushing the panic button just yet. Looking at their schedule, 3 of their 5 toughest games this year occur in the first 4 weeks of the season. When I saw the schedule come out this summer, I felt if we could go 2-2 in the first four games, we'd be in pretty good shape, and 2-2 is still a possibility.

I feel like they gave the game away to Cincinnati. If you just hold onto the ball, they would have won. I mean, other than the two TDs that the Bengals got in the 4th quarter from point-blank range, their offense did nothing in the 2nd half. While it was unfortunate that they scored TDs after getting a turnover deep in Pittsburgh territory, you can't really complain about the defense, because they were already in field goal range when they got the ball.

The play of Roethlisberger is a little bit more distrubing. The one interception he threw in the first half took at least 3 points off the scoreboard. You can't do that against a good team like Cincinnati and expect to win anyway.

 

Yes well, He really only played the game before that and the equivalent of a game throughout preason, missing some training camp and stuff. Can't expect him to come out on the ball, just the fact that he could come back and play at that point was miraculous.

FTR I see Chicago winning the NFC this year.

 

The Seahawk's got pasted. Damn. But there is consolation knowing the Bears will tank later in the season (they always do).

The Colt's pulled a good comeback.

Haynesworth should be arrested, convicted and sent to prison for assault. Inexcusable.