Divorce

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Ok, I'm sure we've all heard the claim, at least in the US, that 'half of all marriages end in divorce', right? Well, did you know that it's a lie!?!?!?!? Well, ok, maybe not a lie, but at least a gross mis-representation of the actual truth. I just recently found this out myself thanks to one of my wife's (Oh, by the way, I just got married ) counseling classes.

The truth, it turns out, is that this 'statistic' actually originated as a probability analysis. That means that, because there are two possible outcomes: you either divorce or someone dies, that there is a 50% probability that divorce will be the outcome. Someone stated this, someone else irresposably simplified it to 'half of all marriages end in divorce' and way too many people never bothered to check their facts when reporting it. The truth, according to http://www.divorcereform.org/rates.html (crap, I can't figure out how to make that a link now) is that only about 38% (admittedly that was in 2005, but that 'statistic' has been around a lot longer than that) and never capped 41%.

Additionally, that 38-41% includes all marriages so John Faithful's 4th marriage, which is exponentially more likely to fail than his third, which was exponentially more likely to fail than his second, etc., is included in that statistic. Of new marriages, almost all that fail do so within the first 5 years and occur to very young married couples (25 and younger).

Comments?

 

Well, it's not really surprising to me. I never saw a reliable report stating that divorce rates were 50%. Most reports I have seen tabbed the number around 40%, so your figure of 38% seems right in the ballpark.

However, I think there is a broader point to be made here - I think the problem isn't discussing whether it's 50% or 40% - either way it's really high. While acknowledging that 2 in 5 isn't as bad as 1 in 2 - I think that's still a major problem.

I wonder if divorce isn't something that's more common among the upper class - lots of money always seem to raise conflict. Or maybe I just have friends who are more faithful than the rest of the general population. I know people who are divorced, but of my circle of (mostly middle class) friends, none of them are divorced. And the sample size we're talking about is certainly large enough that some of them should have even if the figure were lower than the currently cited 38%.

 

I've wondered for quite some time how the people who get married, get divorced, get married and get divorced again affect these statistics. On the whole, there's no effect, but on the other hand, what everyone might like to know is what are the chances of a specific marriage to fail and of this these kind of statistics tell diddley-squat.

And besides, what's the big deal anyhow? I think the bigger deal is that how many couples get separated even after a considerable time of dating or even living together. Those numbers must be huge.

edit: And oh, congrats NOG

 

Yeah, this isn't news. I'm going to have to disagree with Aldeth on one point, though. Our divorce rate isn't necessarily a problem. Before divorce lost most of its stigma, marriages that really needed to end stayed together due to societal pressure, and their children suffered for it. Sure, divorce is hard on kids, but hearing your parents fight on a daily basis or, worse yet, engage in physical altercations is far worse.

 

While I agree about your points on sometimes divorce being the best option, I still have to say something is wrong if 40% or so of all marriages are ending in divorce. To me, that speaks of way too many people marrying for the wrong reasons to begin with. Marriage is work, and some people aren't willing to do what is necessary - which is why they shouldn't have married to begin with.

 

I can agree with this, but would add that divorce is the symptom, not the problem. While it appears a minor distinction, it is nevertheless an important one.

 

Half of my marriages has ended in divorce.

 

Congrats, NOG. I wish you both many years of happiness together.

 

If you're worried that people who marry and divorce multiple times are skewing the statistics, I'm sure there are statistics out there that tell you have many first time marriages end in divorce.

 

Thanks and thanks again. Considering how long we've been dating, we may count as already having passed that 5-year line.

As for who gets divorced the most, here are some major risk factors:
if your parents got divorced, especially when you were young
if you have been divorced before
if your siblings/close friends have been divorced
if you got married very young (i.e.14-21)
if you lived together before the marriage
if you had sex before the marriage
if you had sex with someone else at any time before the marriage
poor are actually much more likely to get divorced/have affairs than rich, but middle-class are least likely of all

All of these are supported by research, but, again, the two biggest groups, by far, in that 38% are people who have previously been divorced and people who married young (21 and younger) and have been married for less than 5 years.

 

Actually, one factor that may inflate the divorce rate is the fact that most marriages that end with the death of one spouse last so long, where as couples that divorce are free to remarry and may have multiple divorces. One couple may last 50 plus years, while another couple that marries at a comparable age may divorce within 5 years, as previously suggested, and engage in future marriages, each with increasingly worse odds of success. It's the ones that marry poorly skew the statistics...

 

I believe that changing societal values have influenced the divorce rate. We focus so much on ourselves now that it's difficult to be loving and giving and self-sacrificing in the long haul. Used to be a commitment meant something. Now, when some people say "forever" they really mean "until I get bored and can come up with some BS reason to ditch my commitment.

I'm on marriage #2 and am constantly on the lookout for a slide in my behaviour -- don't want to stop paying attention to my wife and lose her like I did my last one.

 

Is it that we aren't so loving and giving as before, or more that, because it's easier to get a devorse (both legally and socailly) that more people rush into marriages which they may not have entered if they knew they couldn't devorse?

 

The moral here is - Don't get married.

I've never understood marriage and why people do it. Ooh, I'm so modern!

 

From my understanding, at least here there are certain legal(ish) reasons to do so. For example, if your in a long term relationship and your partner has a serious injury, you're not allowed to sign any forms or anything on his/her behalf. Or with old age pension, the amount changes if you are married.

 

I am pretty sure people rushed into marriages before as well, it is just that in the "good old days" you were stuck in it no matter what. Hubby wailing on you every Friday night? Tough luck, you promised to love him for richer and poorer. Your wife an evil witch who spends all her waking time telling you how worthless you are? Tough luck you promised to love her for richer and poorer.

Of course it is silly to rush into marriages but at least nowadays there is a way out.

 

NOG: Interesting list, but you missed "if your partner is no longer your soul mate and you want to pursue love elsewhere..."

No... no... no bitterness there at all.

 

I'm sorry, but if I had a sister, and she ended up with a jerk like that, "Till death do us part" might come sooner than he planned on...

Marriage is a covenent. When one side violates the deal, the marriage is pretty much doomed. Sure, there is room for growth and forgiveness, but in cases of abuse, divorce is the best course of action...

 

Me? I'm not getting married, I pop the question and get turned down. Heh. So I really can relate to this

 

These two divorce risk factors surprised me; I would have thought at least the former would have helped to figure out or iron out any incompatibilities before the marriage. Perhaps it's just because the more conservative types are less likely to do these and are more likely to honour their vows.

I had a friend studying med who was a bit like that, he'd say that "the divorce rate for physicians is 70%, why bother" or something to that effect.