Fantasy Football: Advice and Discussion

Remove all ads!

Well, it's that time of year again... As a 10+ year veteran of FF, I'm usually very prepared, but this year I actually find myself with a bit of doubt with my first pick. I cannot decide. I'm picking from the #4 slot - and therein lies the problem. Unless the people I'm playing with are idiots (and I'm at least somewhat confident that they are not), the first three picks, in some order, are going to be Chris Johnson, Peterson, and MJD. (And if they aren't, my pick becomes infinitely easier.)

However, assuming those are the first three off the board, I'm left in a bit of a conundrum. There's no WR worth the 4th overall pick IMO, and with eight QBs on the board that I think qualify as at least "good", I see no reason to run out and grab Brees, Manning, or Rodgers that early either. I'll be totally happy with someone like Brady or Schaub in Round 2, or even Romo or Rivers in Round 3.

So I'm taking a RB (at least I got that far). The question is, which one? I see three that I can make a sound argument for - Ray Rice, Frank Gore, and Michael Turner. While I don't see any as a bad pick, I do see some downside with all three:

Rice - got a ton o' yards last year from receptions, and with Boldin now in the mix, I don't see as many balls being thrown his way this year. He also misses out on TDs due to McGahee and Co. vulturing TDs.

Gore - some injury risk, but my big complaint is he is a boom or bust player. You don't get too many 120 yards, 1 TD games out of him. What you tend to get is 60 yards and no TDs, or 155 yards and 3 TDs. So the end of the year stats look great, but they aren't particularly good for getting an average.

Turner - if it weren't for the injury last year, I'd say he would be the no-brainer. If you extrapolate his numbers out for a full year (if he were healthy), only Chris Johnson would have finished with more rushing yards. For any pick other than Round 1, I'd definitely roll the dice with Turner, but you need to make a safe pick with your first pick. Is he safe enough?

 

My Fantasy Football tips are pretty no brainers pal; get Drogba, Lampard and Fabregas. Every year they get so many points that you can't possibly leave them out. They will take a massive chunk of your budget, but it is worth it. Then get Everton or Fulham defenders, and a cheap-ish keeper. Never get played with poor disciplinary records as it often removes their points, even if they have a cracking game. Young and Agbonlahor from Villa are usually good acquisitions for midfield.

 

I would call all of you people useless, except that would be an insult to useless people everywhere. I ended up going with Ray Rice - not that anyone would apparently care.

 

Well, there were several people last year that commented on a similar thread. I know Blades and Snook play, as does Chicken - although I haven't seen him around lately come to think about it.

 

Rice was the pick in my opinion Aldeth. Sorry for the late reply, been busy. Fatherhood, my man, it's... burdensome.

 

Oh, I know all about fatherhood - my kid is nearly the exact same age as your daughter. Today was his first day of preschool - my stomach has been twisted in a know all day worrying about how he's doing.

 

Got my draft on Wednesday night. I have the 4 slot out of 10 teams this year. Our league scoring system is pretty balanced, we tweaked it a little more this year, I belive it will be more friendly to QBs. I am hoping to land either Brees, Rodgers, Manning(Peyton) or possibly one of the big RBs. But by looking at the draft order, I believe Peterson and CJ will go one-two. Not sure how the 3rd pick will go, it's held by a newbie.

 

The consensus top 4 are Johnson, Peterson, MJD, and Ray Rice. There is some debate about the exact order, but those are the top 4. IMHO, it is silly to take a QB that early. I think if you have the chance to land one of the top RBs, you have to pull the trigger with the first pick. The reason is simple: In round 2, you can still land someone like Brady, Schaub, or Romo as your QB. Conversely, if you wait until Round 2 to pick a RB, you're looking at someone like Cedric Benson or Rashard Mendenhall.

It's all about value. The dropoff between the QBs taken in 1st round and the 2nd round is much smaller than the dropoff in RBs taken in the 1st round and the 2nd round. I'm not saying I wouldn't rather have Brees, Rodgers, or Manning - but in terms of points, you're only looking at a difference of a couple per week with someone like Romo instead. With the RBs, you're looking at a difference of someone who averages around 20 points per week, compared to someone who averages 12-14 points per week.

In my league where I drafted 4th (12-team league), I started with Ray Rice, got Benson in Round 2, and still landed Romo with my 3rd Round pick. The difference between Brees and Romo isn't worth 24 draft picks. While I wouldn't be thrilled with Benson as my #1 RB, I love him as a #2 RB. I used my next three picks to fill out my WR positions, which were Wes Welker, Dwayne Bowe, and Pierre Garcon. None great, but all good enough.

 

Like I said lat year, scoring systems in different leagues make a huge differene in how you draft/construct your team. QB is stronger in our league than RB. Lat year, CJ and Peterson weren't top 5, QBs were. That said, we added 2 team owners, bringing our league up to 10 teams. I traded the # 4 overall pick plus my last round pick for another owners #9 overall and his 2nd round pick(12th overall). I took Brees at 9, Wayne at 12. He took Rice at 4(with MJD still there but htis guy thinks Rice is the greatest thing since sliced-bread). #1 was Peyton, #2 AP, #3 CJ. I was hoping for a stud QB, but thought Brees would go before #9. But A Dallas fan took Romo with a 1st round pick(#7) and a GB fan took Rodgers(#5) with a 1st round pick. In the 3RD Round I landed Benson. In the 4th, Ryan Grant. In the 5th, surprsingly, I got Dallas Clark. So I am VERY happy with my Roster. We start 1 QB, 2 RB, 4 WR/TE, 1K, 1 DEF.

QBs - Brees, E.Manning
RB - Benson, R.Grant, McCoy, Portis
WR - Wayne, S.Smith(NYG), S.Holmes, Harvin
TE - D.Clark, Olsen, G.
K - Akers
Def - Philly

Since my nephew is running the league again and I love effing with my nephews and I have a 3 yr old niece to go with my 2 nephews of 18-22 yrs, I changed my team-name to "My Three Nieces". They gotta hate me!

 

I wish I had seen this earlier. Without knowing your scoring system I still have to believe that Rice was the correct pick.

My office draft is brutal as it is a twelve team league and almost everyone is a shark (no guppies). I ended up with the below from the 8th spot and I am pretty satisfied. Of course, hope springs eternal until you start playing.

Frank Gore
SF/9
Miles Austin
Dal/4
Jahvid Best
Det/7
Wes Welker
NE/5
Jason Witten
Dal/4
C.J. Spiller
Buf/6
Matt Ryan
Atl/8
Santana Moss
Was/9
Matthew Stafford
Det/7
Laurent Robinson
StL/9
San Francisco
SF/9
Mason Crosby
GB/10
Harry Douglas
Atl/8
Correll Buckhalter
Den/9

 

Blades,

Scoring systems do make a difference, and in most standard scoring leagues, the top point scorers for the season are QBs. I wasn't suggesting otherwise. My point was simply that the drop off in point production from QBs you can pick in the first round to QBs you pick in the second round is less than the drop off between RBs in the first (especially early first), compared to the second.

I will concede that I take a very cavalier attitude regarding QB. Of course, you're talking to a guy who won a league last year with Matt Ryan as his QB until he got hurt, and ran the table in the playoffs with Vince Young. It helps when your first 6 picks are Chris Johnson, Randy Moss, Ryan Grant, Vincent Jackson, DeSean Jackson, and Dallas Clark (he fell to me).

The guy you made the trade with is an imbecile. The last pick is essentially a worthless pick in terms of player availability. It's such a low draft position that you essentially gave up the 4th pick for the 9th and 12th pick - you got to do that. You got three picks in the top 17 - there's almost no way you can screw that up. Especially considering that you were committed to taking a QB with your top pick. The probability picking 9th that one of the top three QBs would still be there was high.

I have no problem with Brees on the 9th pick. Just because I wouldn't take Brees with the 4th overall pick doesn't mean I wouldn't take him with the 9th pick. I'm not surprised that Rodgers went before Brees. In most of the drafts I have participated in (mock and live) Rodgers is the 1st QB off the board. Manning before Brees is surprising, and the Dallas fan probably could have got Romo with his 2nd pick.

I also am a bit surprised that you got Benson and Grant on your team. I have them ranked in the same tier, and both of them are usually gone before the 30th selection (and in some cases they go in the 2nd round). They are so similar that you almost never see them on the same team because they are usually selected within a few picks of each other. My rule with TEs is I take one as soon as I am confident that there is a better one available than any of the WRs available. 5th round sounds about right for Clark. Holmes is a great 3rd receiver once he serves his suspension.

Snook,

That looks solid - I think you got a steal with Gore at #8. I love the Welker pick - I think you're getting 3rd round production from a 4th round WR. I think Best is a solid RB, and while I don't see great things ahead for C.J. Spiller, he's fine as a 3rd RB/Flex. Ryan will serve you well as a QB - he won't be spectacular, but he should give you fairly consistent production. You also get a gold star for picking a player I've never heard of. Who the frick is Harry Douglas?

 

He had a pretty good rookie year, but last year blew out his knee and never played in a game. He is listed as the 3rd WR on Atlanta, but I think he will end up 2nd as I think Atlanta will be doing a lot of 3 wide and Douglas is the slot receiver. Yes, he is a stretch, but that is what the 13th round is for

 

Oh, I wasn't being critical - I was sincere about the gold star. I know my fantasy football, and it's rare for me to not know a player - even someone who is relatively obscure. I figured he was a WR, as Turner is the starter in Atlanta, and Snelling the backup, and you're really stretching if you pick a handcuff to a handcuff. Still, like you said, the 13th round is the time to take a high risk player, because if he never makes it off the bench, you've lost very little in the attempt.

---------- Added 20 hours, 7 minutes and 8 seconds later... ----------

From the department of "Nothing like waiting until the last minute", I'm drafting my final league tonight. This is the final of my three drafts, and the league I won last year. As a result, I pick last in a 12-person draft, and hold the 12th and 13th selections.. Quite unfortunate for me, as this is just one of those years where I think only 11 guys get 1st round grades, so it's basically like I'm getting 2 second round selections rather than a first and a second.

This is the league that I take the most seriously, because it's the league consisting entirely of people I work with, and as such, if I do poorly, I have to hear about it daily. The other two leagues I'm in are with friends I only see on occassion, and in both of those leagues there are friends of freinds who I do not even know.

Anyway, my cheat sheet is prepared, and I think I have a plan. Like I said though, there are only 11 worthy 1st round picks IMO, so I'm assuming the following will all be gone with my first pick (in no particular order):

RBs: Johnson, Peterson, MJD, Rice, Gore, Turner, Jackson
QBs: Rodgers, Brees
WRs: Johnson, Moss

Which leaves me in quite the bind. I am sure of the following:

1. If it doesn't work out that way, and any one of those guys are available (or ideally two of those guys are somehow available) that will be my pick.

2. After Johnson and Moss there are NO WRs worthy of the 12th or 13th selection. You have to be willing to go "all in" on picks 12 and 13, and I'm not rolling the dice with Fitz, Marshall, C. Johnson, White, Miles Austin, DeSean Jackson, Jennings, et. al.

3. I'm stuck with going either QB-RB, or RB-RB.

Given this fairly unfavorable setup, I've come up with the following plan. I have to make at least one of my first picks a safe one, because I don't think there are any sure fire players to pick on the board. The safest thing I can come up with is Peyton Manning. I hate spending a first round pick on a QB, as I generally think you can get slightly less production from the likes of Brady, Schaub, Romo, or Rivers in Rd2 or Rd3. Or even someone like Favre, Kolb, Flacco, or Eli Manning in Rd 5 or Rd6. Alas - I cannot find two RBs I really like on the list.

That said, I have to take one RB if I'm passing on all the receivers, as I'm obviously not picking two QBs. So I look at my tier of RBs that I have grouped below the top 7. The list includes the following guys:

DeAngelo Williams, Ryan Grant, Rashard Mendenhall, Shonn Green, and Ryan Matthews

I have to eliminate Mendenhall right off the bat. Not only has he not looked particularly good in pre-season, I hate picking guys from my real football team (Steelers) for my fantasy football team (except for the kicker, which I don't care about). The fear is that when they have a bad game (which will inevitably happen at least a couple of times per season), it feels even worse, as it likely cost both my real team and fantasy team a win.

I have serious reservations about Shonn Green. I absolutely LOVE Green if you can get him as a 2nd RB. But I cannot shake the feeling that the Jets didn't sign LT to be carrying a clipboard. Green will get more carries to be sure, but I can definitely see it being a situation where Green gets around 20 touches a game, and LT gets 10-12. We know LT excels as a receiver out of the backfield, and has always been a goal line presence, even after his peak years were gone. I smell TD vulture here.

DeAngelo Williams is a player I've never "got", so to speak. He had an outstanding second half of a season three years ago, and he's been a #1 pick ever since. There was a confluence of events that lead to that though, the biggest of which is that Jonothan Stewart missed a bunch of thsoe games. Otherwise, Williams is in a RBBC situation, and if you consider the one outstanding year to be the general exception to the rule, you have a back that averages 1100 yards and 7 TDs a year. That's a first rounder? Not in my book.

Ryan Grant I think represents the safest option on the board. He's never run for more than 1500 yards or 14 TDs, but he's never run for fewer than 1200 yards and 8 TDs either. The backup is Brandon Jackson, who never gets serious work, so he's the man there. It's a tempting option. I think he has a lower ceiling that the other options, but he has a much higher floor than any of the other options.

Finally, there's Ryan Matthews. The knock on him is obvious - he's a rookie. He's never done it yet in the NFL. RBs are the one skill position that excel in FF even as rookies, but it is still a bit of a risk here. On the upside, the other back is Darren Sproles, who has never received heavy work, and I don't think that will change now.

I got to roll the dice here no matter what I do, and if I'm going to roll the dice, I think it may make sense to go with the guy with the highest ceiling - which I think is Matthews. The three on that list that aren't going to share carries much are Grant, Matthews, and Mendenhall, and I think the ceiling on all three is the highest on Matthews. There's nothing in his history that has lead me to believe Grant is a top RB (despite owning him and liking him last year - but that was as a #2 back behind Johnson), and if I'm wrong on Mendenhall, at least I can be happy about being wrong. I think I'm leaning Matthews here.

So that would leave me with Manning and Matthews. This will also force my hand in my next two picks, #36 and #37. I'm going to spend at least one, if not both of them, on a WR. I'm looking more at the Steve Smiths, Anquan Boldin, Wes Welker types with those picks. The other thing that sucks, is that since I won't pick again until the last pick of Rd5, I'm also probably giving up on all the best TEs to boot. I cannot justify taking any of them with the last pick of the Rd3 or the first pick of Rd4, and the best ones will be gone by Rd5. I have a very simple rule in picking a TE. I take one as soon as I see one that I think will have better numbers than any of the WRs left on the board. Clark, Gates and Davis will be long gone by the end of Rd5. I MIGHT be able to grab Celek, Gonzalez, Finley or Witten there, and I'm still going to need another RB along the way - probably someone along the lines of Forte, Forsett, or Bradshaw (who I really like and I think he'll be the main back for the NYG this year).

 

Well, not a banner start for Brees last night(Fantasy-wise). Hopefully, that will be his worst game of the year. Maybe Grant can run all over my beloved Eagles. Better yet, I am hoping the Peyton-Dallas connection is still working this year. Another 100 catches and double digit TD year would be awesome!

 

Thursday was the kickoff, but today is the day that the real fun begins. Go Pats.

 

A co-worker of mine, located in Windsor Locks, CT is a big Pats fan. We got a bet of a hundred "fun tickets" on the Pats season. Ifthe Pats cover more often, she wins, if they don't I win. There is no tie breaker other than the playoffs. Here's to hoping don't cover week to week.

 

So how is everyone's season going so far?

After two weeks, I'm 1-1 in all three leagues.

 

In my two leagues I'm 2-0 in both and leading both leagues in scoring. However, I'm waiting for disaster to hit around week 4. In the league I posted here I cut Stafford after his injury and was able to get Vick. I have benched Spiller and started playing S. Moss. I scored some monster points this week.

 

Yeah, Spiller has been nothing short of awful. And Lynch is leading the team in carries and yards. If you had to guess at the beginning of the year, I would have guessed the breakdown in carries would have been Spiller, Jackson, and Lynch, and it's been the exact opposite.

EDIT: Well, at least Reid had the decency for fantasy football fans to announce Vick as the starter BEFORE our Tuesday waiver claims were processed. I was all set to drop Vick, as I only picked him up because in my one league I drafted Kolb. I was all set to drop Vick - sure glad I didn't.

That said, if I were Kolb, I'd be pissed. I hope things work with Vick for Philly fans - I cannot see any possibility of Kolb re-signing after this year after not getting a fair shake to be the starter.