Fantasy Football Playoffs

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For those who play fantasy football, this is the last week of the regular season in most leagues. It's sort of a down year for me, in that I would be considered an underdog to win the championship in any of the leagues I'm in, and I almost certainly won't be able to repeat my performance of a year ago, where in the three leagues I finished 1st, 2nd, and 3rd. (And yes, that's definitely a #humblebrag comment, but what can I say, I'm pretty good at this game.)

As it currently stands, I'm a lock for the playoffs in one league at 8-4, and that's the league I care most about. The only thing at stake in this weekend's game is to determine if I win the division or am a wildcard, but I'm no worse than the 4th seed no matter what happens. I'm a likely playoff entrant in a second league at 7-5. I'm guaranteed a spot if I win, and even should I lose, there's a decent chance I could still get in based on tie breakers. In the 3rd league, if I get in the playoffs at all, it requires a lot of luck. I'm just 6-6, so I need to win, and two other teams to lose, and one of the teams I need to lose is playing the worst team in the league, that has just two wins all year. Of course, you shouldn't necessarily expect to get into the playoffs with a team that's 0.500 this late in the season.

So how's everyone else's team doing?

 

I'm in 2 leagues this year. I am 9-3 with Brady as my QB. A playoff lock. The league is for fun only.

The 16 team league I entered into at work is a 50 smackaroos buy-in. I am currently in 2nd and need a win and a loss by the first place team. I am 7-5, but beat him head-to-head this year, so I win the tie-breaker. I am playing a 10-2 record team and he is playing the bottom of the league at 3-9, I could be in trouble. My dilema this week was Bush or Sproles at 2nd position RB. I went with Bush. Alfred Morris is my #1 RB. Also have Matt Ryan, R. Wayne, Steve Smith (Car), B. Stokley and V.Davis at TE. Hopefully we see Alex Smith this week, as he throws a lot more balls to Davis than Kapernick. Suisham and Mia Def finish off my Roster.

My opponent has Cam, AP, Bradshaw, V.Jackson, D.Bryant, P. Garcon, TG, Akers and Chi Def. He has Gronk and MJD out.. nice roster, huh?

 

I hit the fantasy football powerball this weekend. As it turns out it looks like I'm going to make the playoffs in all three leagues (I'm now a lock in two of the three.) I need a combined 21 points tonight out of Alfred Morris and RG3 to make it in the 3rd league, and that's not a lot to ask for.

 

Well, RG3 put up 19, and Alf got me 15, easily enough for what I needed.

Blades, I was looking over that roster of your opponent, and at first I thought it was a good roster, but not phenomenal, until I remembered that you said it was a 16-team league. In a 16-team league, that roster is other-worldly. I tend to play in 10 or 12-team leagues exclusively. I'd say 12-team is the optimal amount between everyone being able to get decent players, and yet still needing to be good on draft day in order to be competitive.

If you go less than 12 teams, like 10, or especially 8, the draft isn't nearly as important, as there will be good players that go undrafted in all leagues. If a player you drafted high gets hurt, there's probably an adequate, albeit suboptimal option on the waiver wire for you to pick up.

In a 16-team league, it's the exact opposite. The draft becomes all-important. Even marginal fantasy players eventually get picked, and typically, if a couple of your high draft picks get hurt, your team is sunk because there's slim pickings on the waiver wire. Never mind productive fantasy players - most rosterable fantasy players are already on teams.

That's what makes that guy's roster so remarkable. But he had to have done quite a bit of wheeling and dealing to put together a team like that, as there's no way you could have drafted Cam, Gronk, AP and MJD even in a 12-team league, much less a 16-team league. All of those players had average draft positions in the top 30, meaning in a 16-team league, he couldn't have selected more than two of them.

 

Drat! Eliminated in two out of three leagues. Unsurprisingly, it was the two leagues where I started Bryce Brown that I lost. In non-PPR leagues, he was worth a big fat zero. (Although he did give me one whole point in the league that is a half point per reception.)

There is a considerable element of luck in fantasy football. Going in to this weekend's game, there was one league I thought I would certainly lose, as I was playing the highest scoring team, one where I felt I would certainly win, and one where I thought our teams were fairly even. Well, the one league I won was the one I thought I'd certainly lose.