How will the United States fall? Who will take their place?

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I think we can all agree that the United States of America is currently 'top dog' when it comes to international power and influence. The US sneezes and the world says "Bless you." or however more recently it's been "Shut up!".

Now we all know that a country can never be top-dog forever, or at least history has proven that empires rise and fall. Greece/Macedon fell to pieces after Alexander's death; Rome grew too big and its argued it fell apart because it simply became too soft; Mongolia had a few years in the sun but did the same as Macedon and fell to pieces after its leader died; France waged a war on two fronts and was destroyed by a Russian winter; England just slowly deteriorated losing its colonies; Germany did the same as France years before and now the US stands as head of the pack.

So, why will the US fall? When? Who will take their place? Theories and such, eh?

(Not sure if this is AoDA or AoLS so I guess time will tell, eh?)

 

I'm guessing China...

 

I think USA is already starting to show some of the signs that other empires have shown at their peaks before their 'fall'.

The economic factors that made USA such a force in the second half of the 20th century are shifting significantly at the moment. There is a major transfer of wealth going on from so-called Western nations to mostly Asian countries. There has been such a major imbalance in the earnings of people between those two 'hemispheres' that is rapidly being re-dressed due to the globalisation of the labour force. Put simply, per capita earnings in Asia will continue to increase with corresponding decreases in standard of living in Western countries.

But I am certainly no economic expert so it is most likely that I have no idea what I am talking about.

 

Historically, empires have coincidentally fallen after a widespread acceptance of homosexuality began. This doesn't mean homosexuality is to blame, but that it points out that the real reason is a power struggle between an extreme conservative and extreme liberal belief system, George W. has been the cat that chased the mouse and the rat too far from the cheese; therefore, unless the next president instigates a lasting policy of moderation the fall will become staggeringly apparent within the next two administration shifts.

That is to say that a moderate president will chase it back another administration, much like Clinton did, being a very middle ground president. Bush re-started a cycle that began with Carter, Reagan, Bush Sr. and ended with Clinton's first term, but Clinton's poor behavior made his second term useless and killed the possibilty of shifting things from a schismed America to a moderate one, when an extreme right president (George W.) showed up.

Short answer: 6-12 years will be telling whether USA remains "top dog" how you mean.

When the USA does "fall" currently China would probably gain power, but in that 6-12 years is when we'll really see if India, Russia, or a united Arabic Middle-East will pick up where USA left off.

 

Asia is rising. China is growing very fast, Japan has a very good technology, Korea is growing militarily and India is also growing. And lastly, Iran has some technology. Moreover, they have very big man power and "technology + man power = power". I think the real reason of Asia's growing is that they realized science and technology are the most important things. US will eventually fall, but she will still be a very powerful nation after its falling.

 

I would prefer to see a few 'superpowers' to keep things balanced. At least that way certain countries will be too scared to abuse their power.

The next superpower could be a tiny country with fantastic technology that has been ignored all these years. Imagine the Isle of Man - the rising of the Manx empire

 

We're not living in the days of swords and armour anymore guys.. This is a different age, the computer era. The US is topdog because it has a 30 year advantage on it's closest rival, which is nowadays China. The only thing China tries to do to keep up with the US, is spying and stealing, basically because they don't have what it takes to develop high tech stuff themselves.

Therefore the US will hold it's current position, because the DO have the ability to improve their technology without stealing it from it's rivals.

 

Those are the same famous last words that dotcome investors were confidently uttering about 6 years ago when asked why they bought expensive shares in companies with no earnings. "The internet changes everything. It's a different world." Actually, it turned out to be exactly the same world and exactly the same lessons applied. Fundamental principles never go away.

 

I think that the US will be the world leader for a long time, together with the EU.

China will not be able to rival nor US or EU in a long time to come. Because when they grow more economicly powerful the people will see that some have good standars while others have a very bad standard.

This is exactly what happened in the early 20th century when communism and modern socialism were begining to take shape. Basicly the people dind't accept being treated like ants anymore (working much but getteing were little profit).

i originally come from Sweden but when I had finished my education I moved to the US because they provided the economic sysyetm that you need to make much money. The result of this is that I leech the swedish state but benefit the US state and I'm far from alone to do that. (nowdays I live in the UK if you think im up late).

Another thing that is good about the US and speaks for upholding thier possition as the worlds number one is that the only contry with decent laws about business is the US.

Basicly the worlds is north america, the EU and some arab contries (that will be erased as soon as there is no more oil in their deserts).

The only thing that points towards the fall of the states is thier public debt, whne you loan money to wage war your on the wrong track.

 

The EU, after the reform comes that makes it a unified country with different states. After that, it'll be rivarly between the EU and US while the US will have it's cold war against most of the Middle East and their supporters. After US fall apart, I think most of the Middle East will continue their infighting again and will leave the rest of "us" alone. After that, it's a new Cold War, but this time between EU and PRC.

 

Sorry, but I disagree. The USA is becoming overburdened with expensive and complicated compliance regulations which actually make it more difficult to do business there. The classic example is the Sarbanes-Oxley Act which is supposed to make business more accountable, but really just adds loads of red tape for little or no reduction in risk. Plenty of international companies are reconsidering the whole idea of participating in US capital markets because it's such a hassle.

 

The US will fall from the inside. The Population will be so polarized that they will tear each other, and all of American society apart. Conflicting voices defending traditional morality versus those that demand it be changed are unyielding and opposing forces. The only way one side will win is the brutal defeat and subjugation of the other.

What replaces the US as top dog? The Islamic world. While the "infidels" fight amongst themselves, those that oppose them will pick them apart until they dominate.

 

Asia? No. China? Yes.

I think everything boils down to money. What does the US produce that is valued by the rest of the world? Not much these days. Thus, the weakening dollar. I doubt the US will "fall" in the classic sense. T.S. Eliot had it right: "Not with a bang, but a whimper."

 

That is exactly the right question to be asking.

 

I think right now, it's arms and weaponry. Starting wars gives them a chance to recoup the money they invest in new guns, tanks and munitions.

 

I think you will find that oil and contracting are the game of choice with GW at the helm. War is just incidental.

 

After all Madeline Allbright once said something along the lines of "Whats the point of having this fantastic military if we cannot use them?"

I don't know about anyone elses country but have you noticed that there are less US businesses these days. In Belfast our capital, there is only one McDonalds and its not exactly busy, dispite the large population. No-one wants to work for a company that treats their staff like crap, and no-one wants to eat bland fatty foods anymore.

 

Hollywood ? Coke and Pepsi ? Fastfoodchains ? Sportswear ? Aerodynamics ? Computers ?

 

The decline will come out of happily misunderstanding Adam Smith and making it a system of belief that has little basis on the real world.

The fall might have something to do with contradicting basic principles. The fog-curtain, the creed of slogans might collapse once it becomes evident that they're only that. Pretty words bent to get the support of the masses.

Somehow I have the feeling that war, like the ones we had in the beginning of 20th century, is no longer impossible. Not very plausible, not for decades, but there's that thing in the air, the atmosphere towards large-scale war isn't that hostile anymore. It's no longer something that is spoken about that much, something that should be avoided at all costs. It's a light scent, very light, but it's there.

If that kind of war comes, the fall will be fast. A struggling economy with a large military leads to trouble. Especially when one of the reasons for war is that it's a ruse to turn the eyes from the problems back home. So let's hope you guys get your economy booming, so that guns wouldn't have to.

Islam is on the rise in Europe. We're slowly becoming more and more islamic. Nothing against islam or any religion per se, just the fanatics. And if Turkey should ever become part of the EU, this trend will increase. Should be interesting.

China has huge problems with it's ecology. Problems that have pretty straightforward causal relations to the well-being of chinese people. I hope that they'll get that part of their act together, for their sake and for the sake of us all. Otherwise it's a power to be reckoned with, and growing.

Russia's getting more power since they have large quantities of oil and natural gases. There isn't a military force stupid enough to try and take that away from them. Might not make them the superpower Soviet Union was, but I've no quarrels of having them between us and the chinese. No offence against China, but it's not that friendly towards little countries close to them.

 

I don't think USA will fall. I can't imagine it. They have better life standards than other countries and this makes intelligent people go there from all around the world. As these people go there and help to develop better technology USA becomes richer. As they get richer life standard gets higher and more people go there and so on... But USA may fall from inside if Bush continues his actions and next president does the same thing.

I've watched a documentary program about Islam's history and it seems centuries ago Islam countries was like USA of today. Lots of mathematicians, scientists, astronomers from different places came to Baghdad. They were much more richer and technologically advanced than western countries at these times. But I don't think they could rise again. They are too busy fighting each other. Also I don't think my country will ever be a part of EU. Turkey is too different from EU countries, people aren't ready for that yet.