Hypothetical situation: Taiwan

Remove all ads!

Just to throw a question and see who catches it...

Imagine that, in a year or so (or maybe not even that long), Taiwan declares its independence from China. China, hating this, invades. Taiwan, in desperation, calls to all democratic nations to help.

Now imagine that you're the leader of your country - what do you do?

 

Depends on how my country is impacted. Do I rely on Taiwan for trade? Do I rely on China for trade? What network of defence treaties are in place?

NZ exports loads of stuff to China so we'd be stuffed if we made enemies with them so we'd have to pretty careful about upsetting them. That's not a very politically correct answer but it's probably the one that I'd make (in the absence of any further information to swing the decision the other way).

This is one of the reasons why I am not a politician.

 

US would most probably get involved on Taiwan's side. They have had a long history together.

NZ has a history of peacekeeping in small countries striving for independence. However, it has never been against a country as powerful as China. We have a free trade agreement with China under construction.

NZ wouldn't do a thing. China is too big, we have a trade agreement with China but we would morally be with Taiwan.

 

I take the opportunity for some land-grabbing.

Or not. Too far away to be reasonably defensible. I let the conflict play out, and side with the winners.

 

Nations are the coldest of monsters. Thats what some people say around here. They do not act because it would be the right thing to do. Righteousness has no place in international affairs. Well... at least most of the time.
Nations act to defend their interests and for no other reason. Or they will not take action to defend their interests.

Europe is courting China and vice versa. We wish for favourable tradeagreements, afaik. China wants european high tech, especially of the military kind.
The most we would do is complain. Nothing more.

 

Are you sure Tal? The US has shown it will get involved in other nations' affairs. The states has always been a bastard when it comes to trading agreements (at least with NZ its reputation for being anal-retentive is the best it gets).

Down here I can't see how the US would let China invade Taiwan.

What would the UN do?

 

To answer the original question: that depends on my nation's military might.
In case of Holland - nothing at all, as we'd be swatted as flies .
And I'm with Tal here - there's (next to) nothing to gain and too much to lose for any nation to intervene.
And the UN will hold meetings, file reports and generally tell China not to be so naughty, and file some more reports - nothing is going to happen.

 

This a complicated issue because Taiwan is not a member of the UN, since China has blocked all their efforts to join UN. Also, Taiwan has full diplomatic relationships with very few countries (no more than 30 IIRC) and the majority of them are from Central and South America and Africa, while USA, Canada and the most european countries have not recognized Taiwan as an independent state and therefore their influence on the international diplomatic stage is very limited.

BTW, I read a couple days ago that the chinese government made an agreement with Yahoo and Google in order not to produce hits, if somebody from China uses search terms as "Taiwan", "R.O.C." or "free Thibet"

 

Taluntain is correct. The US would not intervene in Taiwan's favor - we face a possible military defeat if we try to support Taiwan's bid for independence. And we stand nothing to gain even if we win. It might create lingering hostility within China towards the US.

[ August 03, 2004, 05:19: Message edited by: Slith ]

 

I agree that the U.N. will do absolutely nothing because:

A.) Taiwan is not a member of the U.N.

and far more importantly:

B.) China is a permanent member on the Security Council and therefore has veto power on any U.N. resolution.

So the U.N. is absolutely out of the question. There's no way to logically think that China would support action against itself.

That having been said, I disagree with:

There was next to nothing to gain for the U.S. going to war with Iraq. The oil arguement certianly doesn't fly. It's been what, 15 months since the invasion and today oil prices hit another all-time high. And there was a whole lot to lose in the form of the goodwill of the entire world. The answer of whether or not the U.S. would intervene will depend more on who is in power at the time - and the answer is "yes" if it's a Texas gunslinger.

 

really? the view of iraq is a long term thing, it is one thing to secure a source or oil, it is another thing to get it up and running. also. in the long term the US will save itself money on its decreased millitary presence in the area (once the region is 'secure'), it will save itself money from the export price of oil from iraq which saddam wanted a larger price then the US will pay the new government.

and bush finished his daddies war.

 

The US has bases in Taiwan. China tells us to stop defending them, but we keep saying that we aren't, we just have bases there, so attack and you're screwed.

 

GR brings up a good point. If China attacks U.S. bases in Tiawan, there now have been U.S. soldiers that have been attack in an act of war. It would be more than enough justification for a war with China.

China has a military, but it's navy is crap, and it's air force isn't much better.

Step 1: Set up several U.S. carriers off the coast of Taiwan, with concentric rings of support ships and subs surrounding them.

Step 2: Shoot down anything with planes or cruise missiles that attempts to cross the straight.

I don't doubt that China could invade and occupy Taiwan if they did so quickly. But they would NEVER be able to maintain a foothold on the island with no supplies coming in.

[ August 03, 2004, 20:18: Message edited by: Aldeth the Foppish Idiot ]

 

Interesting topic. I really dont think the U.S. worries that much about China invading Tiawan at the moment. I think the U.S. worries more about North Korea in that area and their releations with Japan. I would worry North Korea does something wrong in that area and strains releations with the U.S. and China if China sides with North Korea.

 

I agree with DHB that the U.S. would probably be more concerned with North Korea simply due to the nuclear program and their forthright statements of saying that can and will use nukes if push comes to shove. I also agree that since the U.S. has invested so much money into China that while publicly they may condemn a Chinese invasion of Taiwan, unless personally threatened or attacked they may just stand on the side and wag their fingers while selling supplies and profiting. To my knowledge, and I in no way claim to be a fact finder. Didn't the U.S. did something like that during the Iran-Iraq conflict? Condemn the affair while selling arms to the combatants? If I am wrong I apologize, not trying to step on toes.

 

Scream, sweat, curse, wake up and be relieved that it only was a nightmare.

If this would happen, a major war would break out, as for completly arbitrarily reasons, Tawain was made the border, no one is allowed to cross. As the crossing of that border would signify a shift in pacific dominance and major bloodshed. Luckily, that will not happen, as no one is eager to start a war that everyone will lose.

And if someone would ram Tawain at the bottom of the ocean, where in the nine hells would someone get a decent computer from ?

No. I disagree (not that you wouldn't have known anyway). That the oil-prices would rise was one of the with big certainties predicted outcomes of the war in short-term, as you surely remember from reading your newspaper at that time, where estimates of the degree of the rise in oil prices where all the hype. Of course, your goverment was told that the oil price would rise as their war would create instability, insecurity and a little bit of terrorism in the region the oil hails from. The shrugged it off, worth the cost. In the long term, whose planes are guarding the oil-fields ?

Incidentally, I remember a nasty major power that was eager to conquer itself some Royal Dutch and British Petroleum. And since the Suez-Crisis sends huge star-destroyer sized tankers around the world to fuel it's huge economy. That power isn't nasty anymore, but the neighbouring country is some sizes bigger and starts to develop a huge hunger for oil. Incidentally, the best wars are those, where planes won't fly, ships won't leave the harbour and tanks won't roll because there's nothing to fill their motors up with.