Israel and Lebanon: the aftermath

Remove all ads!

So what happens now?

Who came out of this war in a better position?

Israel is going through a round of political fingerpointing, while Hizbullah is claiming victory. Does this seems cynical, given that civilian casualties and international condemnation was part of Hizbullah's strategy?

 

No winners, just a lot of losers.

What has happened to the 2 + 1 captured soldiers? They haven't been mentioned by the news sources I've witnessed recently.

Hezbollah haven't acheived their supposed aims of geting prisoners released.

Alas, a cease-fire does not mean the end of the war.

 

Yes, Israel broke the ceasefire in 4 hours and killed 6 people.

And it is claimed the real reason of the war is emptying Hezbollah's missile stocks before a war with Iran. So, Israel didn't win it because Hezbollah has a lot of missiles, especially the short-ranged ones.

 

the war isnt over by any means, and i despise the people who claim hizbolla as victors.

israel were made to stop their onslaught (which hizbolla could never have stood up to) by international pressure, its like crying to your mother to stop a boy punching you gor calling him names.

israel havent lost.

 

Someone can say that he has won a battle or a war only if he has achieved the majority of his objectives. So which were the israeli objectives?

1. Free the kidnapped soldiers: Failed
2. Destroy Hezbollah: Failed
3. Destroy Hezbollah's arsenal: Failed
4. Reach Litany (or however it's called) river and create a buffer zone: Failed

So what Israel has achieved in this war?

1. It has increased Hezbollah's popularity among lebaneze people and made it a short of champion of the arabs since Hezbollah was the only force which fought the invaders.
2. It has created a new generation of recruits for Hezbollah and potential suicide bombers
3. It has destroyed the reputation of israeli army. The army, which has humiliated the combined armies of the arab countries in 6 days, has failed to destroy a guerilla force, which was not consisted of no more than 6000 men.

On the other hand which were the Hezbollaz's objectives?

1.Free the lebaneze prisoners: According to the newspapers papers I've read, it was agreed that the issue of the lebaneze prisoners will be in the table of negotiations that will follow the cease fire.
2."Liberate" the Serba Farms: Same as above.
3.Resist to the israeli invasion: It doesn't matter if Israel has stopped due to Hezbolla's resistance or due to international pressure. Hezbolla's objective was to prevent israel from achieving its objectives and that exactly what happened.

Also before someone says that Israel has achieved the buffer zone objective through the deployment of lebananeze army and international force, think these:

1. Hezbollah has shown that it has missiles with longer range than 40 Kms.
2. Is so difficult for the Hezbollah's fast moving units to infiltrate to the buffer zone area (which they know so well as they know their palms), launch their rockets and dissapear?

I wonder if this buffer zone will protect Israel from Hezbollah or Hezbollah from Israel.

[ August 15, 2006, 23:29: Message edited by: BOC ]

 

Bush claims it's a victory for Israel.

 

Bush have also claimed victory against his enemies in Iraq. Bush wouldn't know victory if it bit him in the ass.

 

Each side lost some and gained some.

Israel: they mostly lost face (they must hate being seen as unable to deal effectively with a guerilla movement like Hezbollah), and a small number of military and civilian lifes. OTOH, they probably gained some period of relative peace on their northern borders (Hezb. will need some time to replenish their arsenal, not to mention that they'll probably think harder next time before trying a stunt like this).

Hezbollah: they lost half their arsenal and about one tenth of their fighters. How important these loses are depends in great measure on how much help they can get from the syrians and iranians. OTOH, they gained immensely in popularity; being seen as being able to stand up to the Israeli military matters a lot in the muslim world.

I would not say that Israel came up worse than they were before this war, but they are not much better, either. Hezbollah, however, has the potential to reap big gains from it. It all depends where they go from here.

And of course, the lebanese lost overall.

 

I would not say that any side has won the war butIsrael (or USrael as it should be spelled) could have crushed lebanon in a week if they wished to.

This just shows what happens if one contry is suported by the US and the other side is suported by the EU, nothing. Simpely because both are too afraid of the economical consiqueses of a battle of words with a big buyer of thier products.

Honestly i don't get the war.
Quick scenario:
Hizbolla guy: Hey the jews in Israel have a lot of prisoners from arab contries let's kidnap somebody from Israel.
Israel: You will release our innocent inhabitants.
Hizbolla: Hell no!
Israel: Let's kill all people in Hizbolla by bombing houses where they might be. Killing around 50 civilians to score one "terrorist" kill.
Hizbolla: wut!? they declared war let's fire V2 rockets from WW II at them!

and so on...

The real question why does somebody become a "terrorist"?

My wiev on that is that people who are isolated from society become terrorists we in the west would do the same things if we were in the same situation.
We rule the world and while the west get to be a part of the rule the arab world don't and if they don't litsen to your words then you will become violent to claim your rights.

For example when Hamas won the election in Palestine. The west did not want them to participate in any global conferenses at all because they were terrorists.

It's whn you isolate a nation it starts breading terririste because it's the only way to get heard.

 

Unless Hezbollah releases the soldiers back to Israel then Israel will attack again I imagine. The other situation is that before or after the prisioners are released some non-government faction will attack Israel via suicide bombings or so forth, Hezbollah won't condemn the attacks and Israel will start attacking again.

Unless the UN takes both parties by their ears, drags them into a room and threatens them with big nasty looking weapons and tells them to play nice and stop killing each other otherwise they'll have a larger problem I can't see these two factions stop their feuding.

 

If you are the freedom fighter of one side; the other side will say you are terrorist to show themselves right. So, everybody can be named as "terrorist" by somebody.

 

I think Israel lost. Here's why:

http://www.spectator.org/dsp_article.asp?art_id=10218

Stardust, please elaborate on how the Hezbollah is supported by the EU. Iran and Syria new members there? I doubt it. Besides:

The Hezbollah (the terrorists in this conflict, remember?) compose the society in the Lebanon. The notion that a terrorist is a poor old chap who would be peaceful if left alone but has no other chance than fighting back against the oppressor is cute. Or wantonly negligent. But not very accurate.

 

You may become a terrorist by winning an election like Bush.

If you call Hezbollah as terrorist it's your thought. For some people in Lebanon they are a kind of small government which brings food, medicine and try to get people what they need by making arrangements with richer Muslims. They created some kind of socialism there and that's why (especially poor) people like them.

There was some interviews with people on the way back their homes yesterday. Everyone said that Hezbollah was victorious and some said they would die for Hezbollah because they saved their homes and defended them. A woman said she lost her two sons and have lived in very bad conditions in a school for a month and what she said was important: If Hezbollah didn't win we would be Refugees like Palestinian people.

Back to the question and change it a little: Why does someone join Hezbollah? I think i gave some answers above. But there is another reason (most important one IMO): Fury and hate. Over 1000 civilians died there and what will the children be when they grow up there? Of course suicide bombers.

Well, if Israel's objective was to make Hezbollah gain more public support, to create more fanatic suicide bombers yes they are victorious.

 

Its not just the 'Muslim world' that supports Hezbollah. Yesterday I seen a painter create a huge mural dedicated to Hezbollah. I am sure that there will be many more scattered thoughout N.Ireland. Please note these are not created by or for N.Irish Muslims, but for Republicans (well Catholics in general).

 

Ha! Catholics! Exactly! Can't trust 'em!

 

Incase of any confusion, I was referring to N.Irish.

 

Maybe you need to be reminded that the war has going on for 24 years(and not 4 weeks, as you seem to be claiming with your misguided scenario).
At the start of this skirmish, Israel has been illegally occupying parts of Lebonan, has been illegally holding Lebanese prisoners without trial (can you say "war crime"?) and has been indiscriminately bombing groups of civilians.

Another funny claim you make is that USA controls Israel, actually it is the other way around. Israel controls many lobbies in the US which on their parts authorize what is broadcasted by the newsagencies. What Fox news, CNN and whatnot show to you, is a biased view of the conflict. Every move Israel makes is claimed to be out of self-defense, but they never show you what really forced people to become terrorists.

[ August 16, 2006, 19:35: Message edited by: Morgoth ]

 

This is more how i see things

[ August 16, 2006, 23:58: Message edited by: Taluntain ]

 

israel cant have lost because the war isnt over:

this is called a cease fire

 

Not if left alone, but they would stop figthing if we gave them influence, by society i mean the entire world not just Lebanon. They fight because they hate Israel which I can understand. Say if somebody would take Quebec and claim it as thier own would you not be pissed? If the UN would have given the arab contries that are affected by the state of Israel influence over how this "new contry" should be formed we would not see this problem today.

I'm sure of that we would fight in the same maner if we would be in the same situation.

What do you think then, that they fight because they are fanatics that likes to kill people?

What I don't get is how it becomes a war when Hizbolla takes two soldiers as prisoners besides that according to the geneve convention you are only allowed to take prisoners of war if you officialy have declared war with another nation.

By the way can you tell me when i wrote that Israel is controlled by the US, what i mewant was that they have a very tight bond.
They did not get thier army from digging up gold in the desert you know