NFL Draft

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The NFL draft is right around the corner with teams hoping to improve by drafting quality young players. Which player do think Oakland Raiders will draft first?

I know all the pundts and others teams hope the Raider picking DeMarcus Russell, but I feel they Calvin Johnson even if they can't land a veteran QB.

As far as I know I really hope Leon Hall falls to number 18 for my beloved Bengals. They could use another young DB. It would be fantastic if Landry would fall into there lap, but I don't see that happening any time soon.

 

To me, the NFL draft is the most puffed up media event on the sports calandar - and I LIKE football. Think about this - you will never have heard of good number of the players that will be drafted. You've seen even less of them play. History has shown repeatedly that it is very difficult to project which collegiate players will translate into stars in the NFL. Every year some teams pick players in the first round that flame out in a few years. You'd at least think that people with the first few picks would get a decent player, but that doesn't happen either.

Let's take a look a recent history, shall we? Say the top three draft picks of the last 10 years?

1997:

1 St. Louis Orlando Pace T Ohio State
2 Oakland Darrell Russell DT Southern California
3 Seattle Shawn Springs CB Ohio State

One pro-bowler, one almost pro-bowler, and one average player - that's actually a pretty good year.

1998:

1 Indianapolis Peyton Manning QB Tennessee
2 San Diego Ryan Leaf QB Washington State
3 Arizona Andre Wadsworth DE Florida State

One future Hall of Famer, and two absolute busts.

1999:

1 Cleveland Tim Couch QB Kentucky
2 Philadelphia Donovan McNabb QB Syracuse
3 Cincinnati Akili Smith QB Oregon

One pro-bowler and two absolute busts.

2000:

1 Cleveland Courtney Brown DE Penn State
2 Washington LaVar Arrington OLB Penn State
3 Washington Chris Samuels T Alabama

A particularly sorry lot - Arrington became good, but never great, and the other two never even became average.

2001:

1 Atlanta Michael Vick QB Virginia Tech
2 Arizona Leonard Davis T Texas
3 Cleveland Gerard Warren DT Florida

To me Michael Vick is over-rated, but I will say this - while there are no future Hall of Famers here, at least they are all still in the league. Vick is the only one who has even approached stardom.

2002:

1 Houston David Carr QB Fresno State
2 Carolina Julius Peppers DE North Carolina
3 Detroit Joey Harrington QB Oregon

Julius Peppers is very good. The other two "franchise" QBs are now riding the bench.

2003:

1 Cincinnati Carson Palmer QB Southern California
2 Detroit Charles Rogers WR Michigan State
3 Houston Andre Johnson WR Miami

One very good, one pretty good, and one bust.

2004:

1 San Diego Eli Manning QB Mississippi
2 Oakland Robert Gallery T Iowa
3 Arizona Larry Fitzgerald WR Pittsburgh

It's gets a little harder from here on out, as we don't have a big enough body of work. From what we've seen, Eli will be good enough to start, but not be great, Fitzgerald has already been to Pro Bowls, and Gallery looks like he plays on rollerskates. So two hits, one miss.

2005:

1 San Francisco Alex Smith QB Utah
2 Miami Ronnie Brown RB Auburn
3 Cleveland Braylon Edwards WR Michigan

It's getting harder as body of work gets smaller. These guys are all still starters, so for now we'll call them "hits", despite none of them being great.

2006:

1 Houston Mario Williams DE North Carolina State
2 New Orleans Reggie Bush RB Southern California
3 Tennessee Vince Young QB Texas

All are starters, and Bush and Young may both actually be very good one day - Williams possibly too. Not nearly enough playing time to judge though.

So, looking at these 30 picks, what do we see?

9 have gone to at least one pro bowl.
12 others have developed into starters, but not stars
9 were absolute flameouts

I guess my point is, even in Landry does fall to the Bengals, how confident are you that he will be that good? History tells us you have about the same odds of picking a star as you have of picking a bust.

Of course it works the other way too: No one knew Tom Brady would be great - that's why he was taken in the 6th round with the 199th selection. That means every team passed on him at least 5 times before he was selected! To me, the draft is a crap shoot - it will be filled with analysis, but it's impossible to analyze a draft properly until a few years after the fact.

"Talent evaluators" don't seem to be particularly good at their supposed profession. Who's better between Russel and Quinn? I don't have a clue, and neither does anyone else! Quinn might turn out better simply because he'll likely have an oppotunity to play for a better team.

 

I don't even pay attention to the draft until after it happens, simply because all the projections, are always wrong. For example: this year everyone had my Steelers taking either Poz(not goint to even attempt to spell his last name) or Jarvis Moss, and we picked Timmons.. Which looked like a good player in the one and only college game I watched last year. lol


First round: Lawrence Timmons, LB, Florida State. We were hoping the Steelers would be able to trade down and still get Timmons, but perhaps no other team would cooperate.

Second round: Another defensive player; LaMarr Woodley, DE, Michigan.

Third round: In something of a surprise, the Steelers selected a TE: Matt Spaeth, Minnesota.

Fourth round: Daniel Sepulveda, P, Baylor.

The Steelers traded up in the fourth round to acquire this player, swapping fourth round picks with the Green Bay Packers (No. 119) and giving up a sixth round pick (No. 192).

Fourth round: Ryan McBean, DE, Oklahoma State.

Fifth round: Cameron Stephenson, OG, Rutgers.

Fifth round: William Gay, CB, Louisville.

Seventh round: Dallas Baker, WR, Florida.

In case you hadn't seen it Aldeth

[ April 30, 2007, 07:03: Message edited by: iLLusioN' ]

 

I look at the Steelers draft as average. However, like I said, time will tell. I'm not surprised that they went for mostly defensive players though - they have always been defense first, and have spent quite a few of their high round picks in recent years on offense, and they needed this shot in the arm on defense. The lack of many offensive linemen is somewhat of a concern. They only picked one, and it was in the fifth round.

I also found it rather amusing that they traded up to take a punter. How often does that happen? It's true that teams trade up all the time, but for a punter? They must really have liked him.

Having said that, I do feel confident in saying which two teams did the best and worst in the draft. I really liked the Browns' decisions, and I really disliked the Dolphins decisions.

The Browns got one seemingly can't miss player in the best offensive lineman in draft. They also managed to nab Quinn later in the 1st round, at the price of their first rounder next year. Not a bad deal, as you just say that essentially Quinn is your first round pick next year, but you get him a year earlier. Picking him was also smart as Quinn grew up a Browns fan - must be great to play for your favorite team from childhood.

I also liked the deal the Cowboys made in giving up their pick to the Browns. The Cowboys traded the 22nd overall selection in the draft, and chances are Cleveland's pick next year will be better than #22. Furthermore, this draft didn't have a lot of players with 1st round talent - although the draft was deep in the sense that there were a lot of above average players in the later rounds - just not much 1st round talent. So if there was ever a year to trade out of the 1st round for a better pick the following year, this was it. Besides, Dallas ended up making a later trade and picked the same guy they would have taken at #22, but got him four spots later at #26 - same guy at a lower price. I look at the trade as a win-win for both teams.

The worst goes to the Dolphins. Passing up on Quinn was a dubious decision to begin with, as they don't know if Culpepper will ever fully recover, and while they may pick up Trent Green in a trade, that's a very temporary solution as Green is already 37 years old. However, the main problem I have is not passing on Quinn but picking Ted Ginn Jr. Ten Ginn Jr. was forecasted to go in the first round, but most people had him going somewhere in the 15-20 range, and no one thought as high as #9. To me, that was a reach. You could have traded down with someone if that was the guy you really wanted, and still got the same guy later (just like Dallas did). Miami also would have got an extra pick(s) by trading down. So you passed on a position of need (QB) to reach and take a guy that you could have got later - not good.

 

My beloved Bengals had Hall drop to into their lap; this CB is the good character type Rookie the Bengals need after last year. Add to the mix that he will eventually team up with Jonanthan Joseph and they will become the league youngest corners in a team in a year or two. All the Bengals were missing for their secondary was a good hard hitting safety and they pick up two of them in the later rounds; I was hoping Eric Weddle would fall to them in the 2nd round but they ended up selecting a good RB for their offense; which was needed as the often injured Chris Perry has not lived up to his expectation.

As for predicting the draft, yeah there are not guarntees, but I look at my Bengals since ML got there for the first round picks...

Year 1 - Carson Palmer - Pro Bowler
Year 2 - Chris Perry - Not worth the selection
Year 3 - Pollack - Good player and can be great if he can recover from his injury
Year 4 - Jonathan Joseph - Solid CB and could be a 5-10 year starter
Year 5 - Leon Hall - See above....

Add to this all the added players below the first round. In ML first year he draft Eric Stein... and he signed a mega deal with the Browns.... My team is on the up swing, they just need to find a solid defense front 7 to make the DB jobs easier. Hopefully this year it all comes together.