Referendum on the UK?

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As I'm sure many of you know the UK is currently holding a referendum on if it should stay or leave the EU. Someone repeated and added to a point I had been thinking about already during a discussion of this referendum on the radio yesterday.

Here it is, if the UK referendum votes to leave the EU what are the chances parts of the UK vote to leave? Scotland already had a referendum on staying or going and it would be hard to argue for Scotland staying after just arguing for the UK to leave the EU. So if the UK leaves the EU would this mean the UK itself starts to break up-starting with Scotland.

Here is a link to the show if anyone is interested.
http://www.wpr.org/shows/making-sense-tomorrows-brexit-vote-will-britain-stay-european-union

 

As a counterpoint to this, if the UK does leave the EU, it might also set in motion a similar vote in other countries that are currently dissatisfied with their place/role in the union.
Some countries like the czech republic, austria, italy, greece and sweden might wish to follow suit.

That said, i'm trying to keep up with the benefits and negatives both for my country/the EU and the UK, but a lot of it seems to be speculation at best.
Personally, i don't think the UK leaving would mean the end of the EU even if some other countries follow suit, and i wouldn't be hit too hard personally either - i'm not too dependent on products or services supplied from the UK.

 

Even if you would depend on services from the UK - those don´t just end if they leave the EU. After all the EU trades with a lot of nations that are not part of the EU. Being in the EU only makes it easier.

The UK was not in the EU with it´s heart from the very start and always appeared to sit on the fence between closer ties to the EU, the USA and the Commonwealth. Either in or out are both better than dragging on. When they leave the bonus is that a way has to be devised how to remove a country from the EU - and if we´re lucky that way will be used for Greece too.

 

They wouldn't just stop entirely, but they might take a hit by changes that would have to be implemented if the UK does leave the EU - the added taxation would likely make them more expensive for one.

 

Italy may choose to leave but Greece may actually choose to stay in. They may leave the single currency but most of the Greek anger, correct me if I'm wrong, has been directed at austerity policies rather than membership in the EU.

Greece is a nation that would arguably have to be pushed out rather than choosing to leave. If your economy is going to be in a rathole stay or leave then why not stay and at least enjoy some of the political & travel benefits of staying.

Back to Scotland. I've heard that pretty much everywhere in Scotland voted to remain and that officials in current Scottish government have said that if the UK voted to leave and Scotland voted to stay they would use that as a basis to hold another independence referendum. That basis has now occurred and one of the ways Scotland was encouraged to stay was with the point that being in the UK gave access to and support from the EU-if the "leave" referendum is acted on then that becomes a reason to vote to potentially leave the UK in order to stay in the EU.

 

The GBP took a major hit actually. Going by GBP > US Dollar, the rate dropped from nearly 1.50 to 1.32 today, the lowest the £ has been since '85.
it climbed back up a bit but at the moment seems to have stabilized at around 1.36

 

Technically they havn't left yet. it would be a pretty ballsy move, but as far as i understand their parliament could still veto the referendum.
Even if they don't, the process of leaving will probably take a good while to set in motion and finalize.

 

So would i, but i'm just saying it's not a done deal yet.
I'm kind of interested to see what Scotland is going to do now, a new referendum and decision to leave the uk and remain in the EU on their own might be looming there as well.

 

Markets reacted as they do usually with news that changes the status quo in any way - usually with a negative result but today is Friday so a negative result was expected if Br left the EU. The question is how will the market react in the coming weeks to this - will it correct itself, ignore it or will it continue to have a negative consequence on world markets.

The question is what happens next? With Cameron leaving the negotiations to the next PM what will happen? How will it all play out this leaving of the EU? How will it effect other EU members especially the weaker nations? Is this the end of the EU?

And in Britain itself, what happens with Scotland that voted to stay in the EU - will we see an independent Scotland? Is it the end of the UK as well?

And as we move away from the EU for a moment what does this mean for other trading blocks that current exist? Will it signify a change in how markets and nations deal with one another in terms of economics?

The next few months and years should be interesting.

 

I particularly like these myself, first one an edit of a monthy python sketch :



and a quite similar skit by patrick stewart :

 

The British Pound is gonna be just fine. A drop in value was to be expected, as is always the case with major political change, and it'll stabilize in due course.

The butthurt people who have voted to stay are now signing a petition for there to be a second referendum because they aren't satisfied with the fact that the result was too closely split and with the number of people who chose not to participate, completely ignoring that the number of people who did in fact cast their votes was larger than for most major elections if memory serves. Since more than a million people have already signed it, it's something that the parliament is required to discuss. Hopefully, there's not too many people panicking about the GBP.

Regardless of how things go, I find it highly unlikely that Scotland would decide to go for independence. From a purely economic standpoint, splitting from the UK would be bad. I'd say it's just political posturing at this point.

In other news, I hear Texas is deciding to leave the US in 2018. I guess Texit might be the next big thing.

 

That came faster than I expected. I figured it would take a couple of decades as it was the younger generations that voted stay so the more of them that became voting age the more likely they would be annoyed at their elders for messing things up for them.

Texas already did try to leave, the US settled that with the Civil War. What Texas can choose to do, if it wants, is to break up into at something like 8 smaller states. Also if Texas actually needed a "remain" movement they could start by quoting Sam Houston, one of the people who both helped make Texas an independent nation way back when and also one of its leaders who advocated for and then embraced joining the US when Texas became a US state.

As for the Scots leaving. A Scottish leader of the its independence movement said that when he started with the referendum effort on leaving the UK it was 28% for independence. When the referendum happened it was "45%" (actually closer to 44.7) for independence. During the day of the "Brexit" referendum it was at "48%" for independence. So the chances of Scotland breaking away have gone up rather than down. And now they have arguments that go beyond ethnic pride to bolster their reasoning.

 

Well yeah, the number of people has gone up, surely. I'm just saying it's highly unlikely to happen since it would be equivalent of shooting themselves in the foot from what I understand. Then again, I don't think anyone's ever accused the Scots of being particularly smart.

As for Texas, the way I heard it is that supposedly the state still has some sort of legal right of being able to leave the US by virtue of joining the Union as an independent republic or something. Far be it from me to claim anything as fact, I'm just repeating the rumors here.

 

Some said similar about the UK "shooting themselves in the foot" with the EU.


Yeah rumors aren't aways what they are cracked up to be. My understanding is that the US Supreme Court ruled no on Texas having a legal right to leave and ruled on this in the late 1800s.

 

Spoiler: For those who don't like to click links

PARIS — IF there’s one thing that chafes French pride, it’s seeing the British steal the limelight. But in the face of real courage, even the proudest French person can only tip his hat and bow. The decision that the people of Britain have just made was indeed an act of courage — the courage of a people who embrace their freedom.

Brexit won out, defeating all forecasts. Britain decided to cast off from the European Union and reclaim its independence among the world’s nations. It had been said that the election would hinge solely on economic matters; the British, however, were more insightful in understanding the real issue than commentators like to admit.

British voters understood that behind prognostications about the pound’s exchange rate and behind the debates of financial experts, only one question, at once simple and fundamental, was being asked: Do we want an undemocratic authority ruling our lives, or would we rather regain control over our destiny? Brexit is, above all, a political issue. It’s about the free choice of a people deciding to govern itself. Even when it is touted by all the propaganda in the world, a cage remains a cage, and a cage is unbearable to a human being in love with freedom.

The European Union has become a prison of peoples. Each of the 28 countries that constitute it has slowly lost its democratic prerogatives to commissions and councils with no popular mandate. Every nation in the union has had to apply laws it did not want for itself. Member nations no longer determine their own budgets. They are called upon to open their borders against their will.

Countries in the eurozone face an even less enviable situation. In the name of ideology, different economies are forced to adopt the same currency, even if doing so bleeds them dry. It’s a modern version of the Procrustean bed, and the people no longer have a say.

And what about the European Parliament? It’s democratic in appearance only, because it’s based on a lie: the pretense that there is a homogeneous European people, and that a Polish member of the European Parliament has the legitimacy to make law for the Spanish. We have tried to deny the existence of sovereign nations. It’s only natural that they would not allow being denied.



Brexit wasn’t the European people’s first cry of revolt. In 2005, France and the Netherlands held referendums about the proposed European Union constitution. In both countries, opposition was massive, and other governments decided on the spot to halt the experiment for fear the contagion might spread. A few years later, the European Union constitution was forced on the people of Europe anyway, under the guise of the Lisbon Treaty. In 2008, Ireland, also by way of referendum, refused to apply that treaty. And once again, a popular decision was brushed aside.

When in 2015 Greece decided by referendum to reject Brussels’ austerity plans, the European Union’s antidemocratic response took no one by surprise: To deny the people’s will had become a habit. In a flash of honesty, the president of the European Commission, Jean-Claude Juncker, unabashedly declared, “There can be no democratic choice against the European treaties.”

Brexit may not have been the first cry of hope, but it may be the people’s first real victory. The British have presented the union with a dilemma it will have a hard time getting out of. Either it allows Britain to sail away quietly and thus runs the risk of setting a precedent: The political and economic success of a country that left the European Union would be clear evidence of the union’s noxiousness. Or, like a sore loser, the union makes the British pay for their departure by every means possible and thus exposes the tyrannical nature of its power. Common sense points toward the former option. I have a feeling Brussels will choose the latter.

One thing is certain: Britain’s departure from the European Union will not make the union more democratic. The hierarchical structure of its supranational institutions will want to reinforce itself: Like all dying ideologies, the union knows only how to forge blindly ahead. The roles are already cast — Germany will lead the way, and France will obligingly tag along.

Here is a sign: President François Hollande of France, Prime Minister Matteo Renzi of Italy and acting Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy of Spain take their lead directly from Chancellor Angela Merkel of Germany, without running through Brussels. A quip attributed to Henry Kissinger, “Who do I call if I want to call Europe?” now has a clear answer: Call Berlin.

So the people of Europe have but one alternative left: to remain bound hand-and-foot to a union that betrays national interests and popular sovereignty and that throws our countries wide open to massive immigration and arrogant finance, or to reclaim their freedom by voting.

Calls for referendums are ringing throughout the Continent. I myself have suggested to Mr. Hollande that one such public consultation be held in France. He did not fail to turn me down. More and more, the destiny of the European Union resembles the destiny of the Soviet Union, which died from its own contradictions.

The People’s Spring is now inevitable! The only question left to ask is whether Europe is ready to rid itself of its illusions, or if the return to reason will come with suffering. I made my decision a long time ago: I chose France. I chose sovereign nations. I chose freedom.

I have seen all sorts of interesting articles and commentary about the Brexit. I recently read this one and it resonated with me. If this is accurate it also kind of sums up the Trump phenomenon.

http://www.nytimes.com/2016/06/28/o...nytcore-iphone&smid=nytcore-iphone-share&_r=0