The Enemy of My Enemy... Well, at least He's not Shooting at Me Right Now

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Unfortunately, it might be that is the only way to go after al-Queda in Iraq and bring a measure of calm in the provinces: have the other Iraqi insurgents get them for the provocation bombing. It is, to a degree, a good idea - working with the local powerholders against essentially a foreign and unwelcome organization - and it could be that the provocation attacks have been a fatal mistake by the Al-Queda sympathizers. Still, it looks like this new development will also bring its problems: such as how long will this alliance last, and what will come then. Comments?


BAGHDAD, June 8 - The worst month of Lt. Col. Dale Kuehl's deployment in western Baghdad was finally drawing to a close. The insurgent group al-Qaeda in Iraq had unleashed bombings that killed 14 of his soldiers in May, a shocking escalation of violence for a battalion that had lost three soldiers in the previous six months while patrolling the Sunni enclave of Amiriyah. On top of that, the 41-year-old battalion commander was doubled up with a stomach flu when, late on May 29, he received a cellphone call that would change everything.

"We're going after al-Qaeda," a leading local imam said, Kuehl recalled. "What we want you to do is stay out of the way."

"Sheik, I can't do that. I can't just leave Amiriyah and let you go at it."
"Well, we're going to go."

Embracing one-time enemies
The week that followed revolutionized Kuehl's approach to fighting the insurgency and serves as a vivid example of a risky, and expanding, new American strategy of looking beyond the Iraqi police and army for help in controlling violent neighborhoods. The American soldiers in Amiriyah have allied themselves with dozens of Sunni militiamen who call themselves the Baghdad Patriots -- a group that American soldiers believe includes insurgents who have attacked them in the past -- in an attempt to drive out al-Qaeda in Iraq. The Americans have granted these gunmen the power of arrest, allowed the Iraqi army to supply them with ammunition, and fought alongside them in chaotic street battles.

To many American soldiers in Amiriyah, this nascent allegiance stands out as an encouraging development after months of grinding struggle. They liken the fighters to the minutemen of the American Revolution, painting them as neighbors taking the initiative to protect their families in the vacuum left by a failing Iraqi security force. In their first week of collaboration, the Baghdad Patriots and the Americans killed roughly 10 suspected al-Qaeda in Iraq members and captured 15, according to Kuehl, who said those numbers rivaled totals for the previous six months combined. He is now working to fashion the group into the beginnings of an Amiriyah police force, since the mainly Shiite police force refuses to work in the area.

But aligning Americans with fighters whose long-term agenda remains unclear -- with regard to either Americans or the Shiite-led government -- is also a strategy born of desperation. It contradicts repeated declarations by Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki that no groups besides the Iraqi and American security forces are allowed to bear arms. And some American soldiers worry that standing up a Sunni militia could have dire consequences if the group turns on its U.S. partners.

"We have made a deal with the devil," said an intelligence officer in the battalion.

The U.S. effort to recruit indigenous forces to defend local communities has been taken furthest in Anbar province, where tribal leaders have encouraged thousands of their kinsmen to join the police. In the Abu Ghraib area, west of Baghdad, about 2,000 people unaffiliated with security forces are now working with Americans at village checkpoints and gun positions.

Kuehl said he recognizes the risks in dealing with an unofficial force but decided the intelligence that the gunmen provided on al-Qaeda in Iraq was too valuable to pass up.

"Hell, nothing else has worked in Amiriyah," he said.
...
The militiamen, who call themselves freedom fighters, are led by a 35-year-old former Iraqi army captain and used-car salesman who goes by Saif or Abu Abed. In an interview, he said he had devoted the past five months to collecting intelligence on al-Qaeda in Iraq fighters in Amiriyah, whose ranks have grown as they have fled to Baghdad and away from the new tribal policemen in Anbar province. He has said his own group numbers over 100 people, but American soldiers estimate it has closer to 40. At least six were killed and more than 10 wounded in the first week of collaboration with Americans.

"These guys looked like a military unit, the way they moved," Wilbraham said. "Hand and arm signals. Stop. Take a knee. Weapons up."

Ali Hatem Ali Suleiman, a leader of the Sunni Dulaimi tribe who works in Anbar and Baghdad, said many of the fighters in Amiriyah belong to the Islamic Army, which includes former officers from Saddam Hussein's military and is more secular than other insurgent groups. The fighters have been organized and encouraged by local imams.

"Let's be honest, the enemy now is not the Americans, for the time being," Suleiman said. "It's al-Qaeda and the [Shiite] militias. Those are our enemies."


Original: http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/19103676/

[ June 11, 2007, 15:22: Message edited by: The Shaman ]

 

Yup, read the article too. From a perspective of interests the Sunnis would have been America's natural ally, hadn't the administration ordered that Baathists are evil and thus to be ignored. Dissolving the Army and ministeries and other related follies are just a reflex of the decision to leave out the Baathists.
They still pay dearly for that mistake, and I think a lot of the damage caused that way is irreversible.

It seems that finally AQI's indiscriminate carnage is backfiring and that they have exausted the patience of their Iraqi hosts. Which is good. The Sunni only need to hunt down those kooks with the funny accents. They are far better at that than the US will ever be. From a US perspective it is in a sense an encouraging sign that as for now AQI in Iraq is such a pest (in itself alarming) that Sunnis prefer to side with the US to rid themselves off them.

Consider how unpopular the US is and you can guess how much the Iraqi Sunni must like AQI. The US have also managed to convince desert Bedouins to crack down on AQI bands in their territories. It seems that eventually the US do some things right. I do not think that that will win them the war, but it might help reduce Iraqi and US casualties. Also a good thing.

As I see it the insurgent attacks on the Iraqi government and the US are a way for the Sunni to muscle themselves back into the political process that is so far dominated by the Shia and the Kurds. AQI indiscriminate carnage is a spoiler in this effort and thus they have outlived their usefulness.
It is likely that had AQI stuck to attacking and killing Americans they would still be tolerated. Blowback big time. Good riddance. Ironically that was what Bin Laden iirc had predicted and warned Zarqawi of: 'If you don't manage to give your movement an Iraqi face and direction, they will kill you.' Right he was.

 

So someone you don't care for has a hate on for someone you really hate and are willing to let their soldiers die to kill your enemy? How do you lose that?

*reads the post*

Oh, that's how...

 

I remember an assessment by the French Islam scholar Gilles Kepel that Islamist terror will rather sooner than later discredit itself because of the mindless carnage they cause will alienate even their benevolent supporters. That seems just what has happened.
That was also the case after 9/11, when the US enjoyed much sympathy in the Middle East, until the US displaced that with outrage and anger when they invaded Iraq.

In a sense that is what happens when hegemonic powers needlessly exercise excessive force. Think about a low standing. What's excessive and needless is determined by the perception of observers, not by the hegemonic power. Feelings of entitlement, when voiced, don't help.
The US have run in the same trap internationally that AQI has run in Iraq.

At this time Bush has to go to ****holes like Albania to be celebrated, where he generously determined the status of formally Serbian territory as sovereign. Yo. Not that that is exactly his business to redraw foreign borders. Imperial streak? And I hardly wonder why the Serbs and Russians will be angry about that.

/me changes into his 'Perfumed Emperor of the World' Costume

[ June 12, 2007, 13:35: Message edited by: Ragusa ]

 

Yeah, I've been a little worried about that too... His visit passed pretty smoothly, but he seems to put too much importance on independence on Kosovo ASAP. Considering the crime, rumors of connection with extremist groups, and widespread poverty - oh, and the riots of 2004 - I'd rather the Kosovars weren't given free rein unless there are much greater guarantees towards the Serbs than now.

Still, I loved the bit where he said "If Russian and Serbia don't come around, we will have to bring the issue to the UN Security Council." Of course, there Russia does happen to have veto rights, but who cares? The "Blame the UN" series is way beyond its first season, anyway

Back to the original topic: this might be some of the best news so far, although similar articles have popped up now and then so I can't say if it is an isolated case or a trend. It sounds good, but I am more than a little alarmed at the "and the shiites" in the end. It may mean that al-Queda slinks away into a corner, the two major sects catch each other by the throats again, and sooner or later the fundies become valuable allies once more. That scenario must be avoided, however possible.

 

Shaman,
as I said, in my understanding AQI has spoiled Sunni efforts to muscle themselves into the power structures in Iraq. It might well be that with AQI gone, or 'going back to the roots', killing Americans that might change. But I doubt it.

I rather think that the resentment between the two groups is genuine, as the AQI kooks have made a habit of calling many their Sunni bretheren 'not pious enough and thus fair game'. That is quite a radical view AQI holds.
AQIs carnage is stupid because of the blood feud menthality of the clans, and stupid because they are against the Islamic mainstream in Iraq. The local clerics likely do not like competition by AQI with whom they theologically disagree. It is unsurprising that the local clerics participate in hunting AQI.
And then there is ethnicity. Resentment to foreigners is probably a very common thing and vastly underestimated by us civilised city dwellers. Al-Zarqawi was a Jordanian, and many of the AQI jihadis are foreigners too. People tend to resent foreigners who are so sanctimonious. When they then start to kill kin they had it coming. Without Sunni cover AQI will have no more sanctuary. Their emphasis on excessive force was self-damaging.

Al-Qaeda when they killed Muslims in their attacks in Saudi-Arabia went to remarkable lengths to explain why these deaths couldn't be avoided, and wrote open letters of up to 20 pages making their argument. Apparently they are acutely aware of the risk of blowback.
That is in a stark contrast to the view of al-Zarqawi's AQI who wants to bomb until everyone is radicalised and the Islamic revolution can start. In that sense he was a bloody idiot, literally. Bin Laden is much more careful, cunning and a much more formidable enemy.

PS: When there is no political solution what you fear will happen. You cannot marginalise the old elite in a country, even when they make up just 20% or so of the population, and expect they allow that to be done to them, just like that.

[ June 12, 2007, 17:00: Message edited by: Ragusa ]

 

It might get worse. AQ or an affiliated group (most likely) have hit the al-Askari shrine, one of the holy Shi'ah sites in Iraq. They seem to be hoping for another upsurge in sectarian violence; hopefully this time things won't go so smoothly for them as in 2006.

 

Have the Americans forgotten Afghanistan? The idea of helping someone who doesn't like you fight your enemy is one they should be wary of.

 

Well, I recently came across a cartoon that noted that the same thing happened with Saddam-run Iraq of the 1980s, when the big Evil was Islamic Iran.