Who will win? Obama or McCain?

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This poll is to check who you think will win the upcoming election. Not who you want to win. Hmm, I couldn't figure out how to insert another poll to check who you want to win so why not post that here. Interesting to see if there is any difference in what people want and what they think will happen.

 

I both think and want Obama to win.

 

I think it will be a close race. Living in Illinois (and being primarily a Republican) this is a win-win election for me. I honestly believe either candidate will do a good job in office -- both have very similar priorities (they just have different means to a common end in some areas).

Ultimately, I'm afraid not everyone in this country is as open-minded as those here on the boards (and, yes, although we have disagreements in many areas the members on the boards are more tolerant than the average populace of the US). I believe race is an issue and that Obama will be on the short end of that issue -- it is unfortunate.

I also think the VP nominee will have a lot to do with this election (just as with the Bush's).

 

I think both men are decent men. My political leanings make me tend to want a Republican in office, but as has been mentioned so often before, after 8 years of Shrubbery I am a little disillusioned with the present day incarnation of the Republicans. I think a lot of Americans feel the same way. Because of that factor, I think Obama will win (that was my vote on the poll) and I think he'll do a decent job. I do not believe (as so many do) that Mccain would simply continue with Bushian policies, but he hasn't, IMHO distanced himself from said policies enough.

As for race, there's a lot of people who, I believe, vote on racist lines, but with the polarities reversed. I have stated before and still firmly believe that a lot of voters will vote against Obama because of the man's skin tone, but I now also believe that a large segment of the voters will vote for him because he is black, and then go home and pat themselves on the back for being so enlightened. I think both positions are stupid -- the vote should go to the candidate with he best policies, not on a knee jerk skin tone judgement.

 

I think McCain will win, he has gained steadily and fear and "patriotism" are bigger motivators than hope. I hope Obama will win but I doubt it, time and time again people have shown that they are more easily manipulated with fear than with straight forward policies. I am also afraid of the race issue just as I would be afraid of the woman issue if it was Clinton up there. Even if people are not openly racist there are a lot of prejudices flying around.

 

I'm not so sure there LKD. You see, the vast majority of blacks already vote Democrat. Kerry got 89% of the black vote. Obama is currently getting 92% of the vote, so no big difference. What CAN make a difference is if Obama gets a lot more blacks to come out and vote ... But perhaps that was your whole point that I completely missed.

 

My brain is telling me that Obama can't lose, but I've put my faith in the wisdom of the people before and been sorely disappointed. So I'm going to go prediction-free this time around. Brave of me, I know.

 

Yeah, John Kerry was ahead in the polls in 2004 until the Republican Slime Machine kicked into gear. I can't believe that people fall for that kind of slime, but it appears that it makes a difference to them. In the end, the people get the govenment they deserve and they got "plenty of what they deserve" the last 4 years:

1. The neverending war.
2. Massive government corruption (Gonzo Gonzales).
3. Blackwater killing civilians in Iraq just to prove how "macho" they are and large amounts of contractor fraud in Iraq.
4. Massive govenment debt - mega billions in govenment waste.
5. The "housing and credit" crisis.
6. Declining credibilty abroad (to say the least).
7. A shameful heathcare system, which denies basic heathcare to some children.
8. The Katrina debacle.
9. Huge increases in gas prices. (drill, drill drill, just give the oil companies what they want and we will all be fine.)
10. The salmonella scandal (just deregulate the food industry and instant sickness for thousands of Americans).

And the Democrats have not been much better. Although they made a meager attempt at healthcare for poor children, which was vetoed, of course, by THE WORST president this country has ever had. But at least we didn't have John Kerry. Things may have been much worse.

 

Actually, I was not talking about the Black vote at all -- while they are a solid Democratic base, IIRC they are not a large enough voting block to win the White House, though they can help Obama get there if he can inspire them to come out and vote.

I was referring to the white population, which is still by far the largest racial voting block in the country (correct me if I'm wrong.) Within the White community, there always gonna be some KKK leftovers who wouldn't vote for a Black candid if Christ himself came down and told them to. That sort of thinking is so reprehensible it bears little more discussion.

There's also some who, I believe, will vote for Obama out of a sense of "white guilt". It's that sort of thinking that bothers me. If you're voting for Obama because you think he is the best candidate and will lead the country to success both domestically and internationally, then go for it -- that's the reasoning you should be using as an intelligent member of a democracy. If you're doing it because he's Black and you think your vote will somehow counterbalance the nation's previous sins, you're doing it for all the wrong reasons.

Of course, if you're voting for him because you hate his policies less than you hate McCain's policies (and I think that might describe a lot of voters too) that's a sad commentary on the state of politics but is still better than voting based on race.

 

We agree on something.

I'm learning from the best around here to take statements out of context and bend them to my own interpretation (I'm not referring to you in that statement Chandos).

LDK: I think the "I hate Bush, so I'm voting against REPUBLICANS" mentality to be equally sad.

 

OK, so I did miss your point completely - just in a different way than I predicted. (And you are right that whites still comprise the majority of America - although the percentage of whites in the US drops every time we take a census.)

However, I'm still not sure the groups you mention make up a significant enough portion of the population to effect the outcome of the election. For example, while there are certainly some KKK leftovers who will never vote for a black candidate, they are very small compared to the number of people who will never vote for a Democratic candidate. Similarly, while I'm sure there are some people voting for Obama out of "white guilt", I think their numbers are also too small to have a meaningful impact on the election.

I think the primary thing that motivates voters far more than race is political affiliation. If a candidate were to win 60% of the vote, that we be considered a HUGE landslide. Heck, it's considered a landslide if a candidate wins 55% of the vote. That's because 35%-40% of the voting population will always vote for the Republican candidate - NO MATTER WHAT - and similarly 35%-40% of the voting population will always vote for the Democratic candidate - NO MATTER WHAT. The sad commentary on the state of politics in this country is that most people decide who they are voting for based on whether there is a (D) or (R) after the candidate's name. (The other sad commentary is that 40% of Americans typically don't vote.) It's really the 20%-30% of the voting public that is not strongly affiliated with either party that decides the outcome of the election - which is why moderates tend to do well. They get their base no matter what, and the election hinges on how well you do among those in the middle.

 

Smear campains effects notwithstanding I'd guess Obama being the winner. So far as I've seen, which isn't much though, he's more charismatic performer. McCain has a lot going on his side, but Obama's just better when it comes to performance.

The effect of charisma should not be under-estimated...classic example: Nixon-Kennedy TV debates in the sixties...

 

I don't see the problem with voting more for a party than a person. It is much easier to get a grasp of the basic principles of a political party than it is to know any individual person. For example in the next Swedish election I will most likely vote for a party which has a leader I dislike quite a lot simply because the party itself most match my opinions. When the focus is on hte person it all too often comes down to looks, smear campaigns, what they did when they were in college and so forth and to me that is irrelevent.

Now the US could use a more varied political landscape, a thought just struck me. Much could be done if both the dems and the reps just split. The dems along classical left right lines and the Republicans along "moral" lines ie the more religious influenced conservatives make their own party and the more libertarian, what you call real conservatives, into another. Bam, then you have four different parties and a much more varied political landscape. Then you could have a more socialdemocratic candidate, you could have a moderate one, you could have a southern pastor and you could have a worshipper of the free market duke it out.

 

Obama's Charisma score is higher so he gets a better chance of winning. He also can use the spell "Winning Smile" at will, so he should win.

McCain can cast "Fear of The Enemy" at will, but its effects are weakened because its been used too much.

 

"Fear of The Enemy" allows a saving throw at +4. "Winning Smile" allows a saving throw, but without a bonus.

 

Mention god, jesus or god bless america, often: and you get a + 10 bonus.

 

Latest news: McCain is ahead in the polls by 5 points. Of course there is a 10 point margin of error and all you can determine from the usless bit of information is they're really close.

 

They are close in what most people expected to be a landslide for Obama. Mark my words, McCain will win. "Fear the enemy" is completely overpowered and wins against practically everything. It even seem to grow more and more powerful the more you use it.

Is there anyone but me whose mind disagree with their heart? Seems like most people who prefer Obama also think he will win. Anyone except me who think the election will end in disapointment?

 

There actually were two very divergent polls out yesterday. The Zogby poll that T2B reports had McCain ahead by 5 points. The WSJ poll also conducted in the same time period had Obama up by 5 points. And neither of those polls tell the whole story as it's the electoral college that determines the election. I think the bottom line here is that this election is damn close.

There is one thing that does make my mind differ from my heart - and I have no empirical support to back this up: Is it possible that the polls are over-estimating Obama's support? Could it be that a lot of people SAY they support Obama because they don't want to be viewed as being opposed to him because of race (whether that is true or not), but in reality intend to vote for McCain once they step into the voting booth? It doesn't have to be signifcant percentage of people either. Even if 2% of people think that way, it could swing the election if it happens in key states like Ohio, Michigan, Pennsylvania.