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The Steelers will bounce back, in a big way I think. I would shy away from Grant. That's a gut feeling though. Cincy has good corners, but the Jackson/Rivers connection is pretty damn good to. Good receivers still catch the ball no matter who is covering them and Rivers throws a really nice ball with great placement. I like Jackson over Grant.

I like the Ravens, as the Bears are definitely TO prone this year and I believe Ed Reed is back this week. Buffalo sucks to and the PAts could pitch a shutout there. Do Shutouts garner more points in your scoring system?

 

Shutouts do give more points, but not a ton more points:

Shutouts are worth 10 points
1-6 points allowed are worth 8 points
7-13 points allowed are worth 6 points
14-20 points allowed are worth 4 points
21-27 points allowed are worth 2 points
28-34 points allowed are worth 0 points
And the trend continues after that but then you go into negative points.

Turnovers are worth 2 points, sacks are worth 1 point.

 

That's a tough one. The more I think on it, I like the Pats. Chicago can score if Cutler has a good game. It's just hard to know which Cutler is showing up week to week. I doubt Buffalo will move the ball at all vs the Pats.

 

I still stuck on it too - although I think you talked me into Vincent Jackson (and sitting Grant). Jackson has the higher ceiling. Grant did have two TDs last week, but that's the only time he's done that ALL YEAR. Most likely you're looking at a ceiling of 1TD, and 60-80 yards. Jackson has about an equal chance to score a TD, but I think he has a better chance of breaking 100 yards (and earning me the 5 bonus points).

I'm still undecided on the Pats-Ravens decision. On the one hand, the Bills offense is sucktastic, and it's supposed to snow in Buffalo this weekend, which one would reason would further depress scoring. On the other hand, Cutler is an interception machine, and I can totally see him throwing an interception that gets returned for a TD, and that alone would be worth 8 points (6 for TD, 2 for INT).

 

26 to 19 in favor of my opponent after just Jones-Drew against Wayne. I can deal with that.

 

I take it you had Wayne?

I think I'm definitely in trouble in the one league - my opponent has Andre and Chris Johnson, although he did start Pierre Garcon last night, who was one of very few offensive players on either team that was practically invisible.

 

Yep. My prospects don't look too promising though, because of a very weak running back situation.

On my roster right now I have Willis McGahee, Justin Forsett, Michael Turner, and Jason Snelling. As of right now I'm inclined to go with Forsett against a terrible Buc defense, and Turner/Snelling depending on who is healthy.

My other starters are the aforementioned Wayne, TJ Houshmanzadeh, Anquan Boldin, Kellen Winslow, Rob Bironas, and Titans DST... with McNabb at QB.

My opponent for the first round is fairly stacked. At running back he has Ray Rice to go with Jones-Drew. Beyond that he starts Aaron Rodgers, Desean Jackson, Devery Henderson, Kenny Britt (his weakest position is WR by far), Vernon Davis, Nate Kaeding, and Packers DST.

 

It's gonna be a close one, 85-85 with the following remaining.

Me:
One half of McNabb, Forsett, Houshmanzadeh, and a full game for Fred Davis.

Opponent:
One half of Rodgers, Rice, D. Jackson, V. Davis, Kaeding, and Packers DST.

It's gonna be a close one.

---------- Added 0 hours, 15 minutes and 53 seconds later... ----------

286 yards 3TD's the week that I drop you? Real cool Jerome Harrison, really cool.

---------- Added 6 hours, 15 minutes and 58 seconds later... ----------

123-90 with just Davis left? Damn.

 

Well, I'm a lock to win in one league -unless Davis puts up 60 tonight. I dropped a 176-point bomb on my opponent. And Vincent Jackson was definitely a better start over Ryan Grant. One more TD and a ton more yards.

In the other league, I think I got majorly boned by DeAngelo William's injury last night. If he had played more than a quarter, I'd be set, now I am in a very dubious position. I hold a 10-point lead, and have Ganther (Skin's RB) left to play, while my opponent has Eli Manning. If I had got more out of Williams last night, this game would not be close. Then again, my opponent who had the best record in our league this season and knows his stuff about fantasy football, made the very curious decision to start Eli in the first place. Eli is his backup QB, and for some reason he decided to go with Eli over McNabb. I have no explanation for this.

 

That probably was a good move on his part. SF's defense forces more turnovers than the Skins D. The Giants are on the brink, this is a must win for them and even knowing that I HATE to say it, Eli isn't too bad in pressure games.

I won my consolation game, claiming 5th place and my money back, a whopping 20 bucks. Though I won it because my moron opponent didn't realize there was a consolation game and never changed his lineup. He would of beaten me otherwise.

 

SF has the 24th ranked pass defense in the league - the Skins are ranked 8th. On that basis alone I think McNabb was the better start.

While hindsight is always 20/20, Eli is going to need a big day to eclipse McNabb. McNabb had 306 yards passing, 1 TD, 2 INT, and a rushing TD. In our league, that's worth 25 points. If he had started McNabb, I would need 15 out of Ganther tonight, a total I wouldn't feel optimistic about.

EDIT:Shows what I know. While I still maintain I would have started McNabb over Eli, it turns out Eli was in fact the better play. 268 yards, 3TDs, no turnovers is 28 points in standard scoring leagues.

So I lost that matchup by 8, as Ganther got me 10. Damn DeAngelo Williams. I'll be in the 3rd place game this week, and I'll be in the championship in the other league. In the league where I'm playing for the championship, I actually forgot I still had the Giants kicker from last night - I finished with 183 - too bad you cannot carry points over from one week to the next.

 

Well, for the championship week, I have some more decisions.

Sorry for some duplicate information from a few posts up, but for readability, I'll review parts of my roster.

QBs: Vince Young (vs SD) and Matt Ryan (vs BUF) - I think this one I have to go with the hot hand in Young. While Buffalo's run defense is among the worst in the league, their pass defense isn't that bad. (Of course, that might be a chicken or the egg thing - perhaps teams don't pass as much on Buffalo because it's so easy to run on them.)

RBs: Chris Johnson (vs SD) and Cedric Benson (@KC) are both must starts.

WRs: Randy Moss (vs JAX) and DeSean Jackson (vs DEN) would be must starts anyway, but Moss's matchup against Jacksonville is particularly appealling.

FLEX: Again, here's the rub. I have to pick two from Jamaal Charles (@CIN), Vincent Jackson (@TEN), and Ryan Grant (vs SEA). If I'm making the decision strickly based on matchups, I sit Charles. However, the guy has scored a TD in six straight games, and has over 100 yards rushing in four of them, which makes him particularly hard to bench. Grant's matchup appears the easiest, as Seattle seems to be pretty much mailing it in at this point (lost last week at home to the previously one-win Bucs). Do I sit Jackson though?

 

SD has to have a bad game at some point. Now that they are in the playoffs, this could be the week. But they are playing for a bye as well, tough call. GB needs a victory with the Giants still hanging around, I like Grant this week. I would play Jackson as my other flex anyway. I just don't see KC scoring much against Cin, so Charles' upside has to be small this week.

For QB, Norwood will be playing hurt and if Turner doesn't play, the Falcons won't have much Offense. I would sit Ryan and play Young. Young's ceiling is much higher.

Good Luck!

 

Yeah, I was really leaning Young anyway. Since taking over as the starter, he's had at least 12 points every week, and he's hit 20 or more four times. I don't rely on my QB to be my primary points scorer, so anything in the teens is an acceptable score.

I had considered that the Packers may well be in for a bounce back week after a tough loss to the Steelers this past weekend. It's just really tough to bench Charles - he's had double digit fantasy points for six straight games, which is more than I can say for any of my other backs, except Chris Johnson. Then again, since there is no requirement for me to start a 3rd WR - I can go with four RBs and start Charles and Grant and sit Jackson. Hmmm... I may make the decision based on which player would make me feel the least stupid if I'm wrong in deciding who to bench... which would probably also be Charles.

But does SD have anything to play for? Aren't they pretty much locked as the #2 seed?

 

Woo Hoo! Championship!

I ended up benching Charles, and even though my ideal lineup would have included starting him and benching VJax, as it turns out it didn't matter. I got excellent production from Johson, Benson, Grant and Moss, and won by 20.