NHL, 2006-2007 season

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Playoff positioning is really limited for the Canucks in the West. You don't want to finish 7-8 because you don't want to face Nashville/Detroit or Anaheim. 5th isn't good because you face the other of Nashville/Detroit. 1-2-4 is out because you can't catch those teams in points. So 3rd or 6th... and that isn't so good since you'll likely face Minnesota and they are tough to play.

 

I'd be leary to bet against Luongo in a best of 7 playoff series. I think he's probably the best goalie of the bunch in the western conference.

I somehow doubt that Toronto will make the playoffs this year. They blew 3 of 4 critical points that they will not likely make up against teams like Buffalo, New Jersey, Altanta or Pittsburg.

It also sounds like Montreal is having their own problems. Huet is out, Aebischer and Halac havent been the answer, Kovalev and Samsonov have been trouble lately...

I've got the Islanders and Hurricanes in the 7 and 8 spot, with both bowing out in the first round...

 

I think the number 6/7/8 playoff spots are still pretty much wide open. I would not be surprised if any of Tampa, Toronto, Montreal, Carolina or the two New Yorks ended up with those slots. You really have to shake your head when after 71-73 games all that seperates 7th from 11th is 2 points and 6th is only another 2 points ahead.

Boston and Florida are pretty much out of the picture though - there are just too many teams ahead of them to catch up six points in ten games - particularly with the O/T loser point.

Is it just me or have there been an awful lot of overtime decisions lately?

The western conference standings are relatively boring compared to the east. Only two teams fighting for the last playoff spot?!?

The really scary thing is that when the first round of the playoffs start I don't think there will a single series where I would honestly be surprised if either team won. I might not pick the winner if I had to guess but i wouldn't be surprised when the other team won. Parity is nice but I think things have gone a little too far.

 

Yeah, The three that get is will be by default, not by who grabs at teh brass ring. Severe injury problems, inconsistant efforts, even goaltending issues plague all 6 teams...

 

Last night was a perfect example of what I was talking about - you have the Leafs who are fighting to make the playoffs going up against New Jersey who are division leaders and you still get the sense that if it came down to a playoff series between the two that either could win. Even if the Devils got a couple of their injured players back I don't think it would really change that.

Buffalo in the early part of the season was the only team that has shown any signs of being truly a cut above the other teams but in the second half they have been right there in with the rest of the pack. It will be interesting to see how the Leafs two games against Buffalo go.

 

Amazing how far good goaltending will carry a team. Reminds me of the recent playoff success of Giguere in Anaheim, Kiprusoff in Calgary - their teams weren't that great but get a good goalie and a couple players hot, and anything is possible.

 

I don't think I have seen a more disgraceful 10 minutes of hockey in all of my life. After watching the Leafs blow a 4-1 lead in the third period all I can say is that they don't deserve to make the playoffs. The turnovers that they gave up were absolutely horrible. They should play next season in the AHL - maybe then they might actually be able to win something.

 

I thought the officiating was particularly bad tonight as well. How many calls did the refs miss that should have been penalties but weren't called?

 

Yeah, and if you add all of the blown offside calls you can really see that the officials put up a pretty poor showing.

 

Ouch.. Islanders losing their goalie should be good news for you guys

 

Yeah, and so should the free fall of the Tampa Bay Lightning and the 6-1 win over Carolina. But the Leafs will likely need 9 points in the remaining 6 games to make the Playoffs. I think they may match up well with the Sabres or Devils...

 

Okay, let's talk playoff race in teh west. It's close enough I can prognosticate.

First, Atlanta locks down their division. They have 2 gimme games and three against the contenders for the last playoff spot. I think they take 8 points and wouldn't be surprised to see them run the table for a point total of 99 and the number 3 seed in the Western conference playoffs.

Now the New York Rangers, currently at 87 points with 5 games left. They're getting healthy and have 1 gimme game, 3 contenders and one locked. Look for 5 to 7 points, meaning 92 to 94 and.

Tampa has a goaltending crisis, but a soft schedule and 86 points with 5 games left. Carolina is collapsing, so that's 3 points in 2 games, Washington they will likely beat (but Ovechkin would love to play spoiler), as with Florida (but they'd both love to play spoiler too), but I see them losing to Atlanta. I'm calling 7 points (but wouldn't shed any tears if they are lower), for 93 points. Tampa has the tie breaker over the Rangers if they both end up with 93.

Montreal also has 86 points and 5 games left. Take 1 point from Ottawa, nothing from Buffalo, 2 from Boston and 1 from NYR, that's 4, with the Leafs in the last game. 91 points tops. Don't hold your breath for a 25th cup this year.

Toronto has 6 games left and 84 points. I think that the leafs can take 9 points in those 6 games for 93, but again wouldn't be surprised if they run the table. They hare firing on all lines at just the right time and the Defence is getting the job done, and Raycroft looks like a bonafide number 1...

The Islanders have 6 games left and 84 points, but DiPietro is out with head injuries, and a nasty schedule to wrap it up. Buffalo, Ottawa and New Jersey will likely be regulation losses, and I don't see them beating Toronto. 3 or 4 points tops, book your tee time folks...

Carolina is falling apart. Cam Ward did not look good in Toronto last night, and John Graeme looked even worse. They blew two "gimme" points against Philly, and with two against Tampa Bay, and one against Atlanta, and two against Florida (who's on a tear lately), They're lucky to get 5 points. They're not getting in...

So Tampa, the Rangers and My Leafs get the last three spots.

I think I will keep tabs on this to see how I did...

 

Well I will certainly agree that things look pretty bleak for Carolina after back to back blow outs and the Isles will most likely not make it with DiPietro out of the line-up. After that I think it is still a bit too close to call.

 

I just don't think that the Rangers or Lightning can drop out...

Edit: So far, my call for 9 points in 6 games is on target. The Leafs got the one point tonight. A point against Pittsburgh would put them a point ahead of my call...

 

Well tonight went pretty much as expected - Montreal lost to Ottawa, the Islanders lost to Buffalo, and Tampa beat Carolina.

Anything could happen but my gut feeling is that the Rangers and Lightning will take the 6th and 7th spots. I suspect that it will come down to the final game between Montreal and Toronto to decide which of the two teams gets the 8th spot.

 

88 points is 8th place now with Montreal, Tampa Bay and the Rangers all winning. Toronto is in 9th with 87 and the Islanders and Hurricanes are all but out at 84 points.

Right now 92 or 93 will be the cut off it looks like...

 

On the plus side the Leafs won it in overtime but tonight's game never should have come to that.

I guess a couple other pluses for the Leafs would be that Carolina is officially eliminated and the Rangers didn't clinch a playoff spot so they will have added incentive to beat Montreal on Thursday.

 

Yeah, I was counting on the Islander's lack of love for the Rangers to aid them in playing spoiler. Now if my numbers are right, the Leafs are at 89 with a maximum of 93, the habs are at 90 with a maximum of 94, the Lightning are in, and the Rangers, at 90, could still choke all the way to 9th if the Canadiens and Penguins beat them in regulation...

 

The Lightning are not quite in there yet.

If Toronto wins both of its games they would end with 93. If Montreal wins their game against the Rangers and loses to Toronto in overtime they would end up with 93. The Rangers could lose against Montreal in overtime and end up with 95. If Tampa loses both of its remaining games in regulation time they are stuck at 92 and don't make the playoffs.

The odds of that combination of events is pretty slim but it could happen.

 

There's always the possibility that Montréal and Toronto will have equal scores and settles it next saturday.