Pope

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Depends really how horrible he is. If he simply can't fill up the expectations of the people then he'll probably just go down as another pope who did achieve anything special. If he's absoluteley horrible or plain mad then I'm quite sure the Catholic Church has some way to get rid of a pope who is "unfit" to rule. If no other way then there has been quite a few popes that have died in assassinations either because of political struggles within the church or outside it.

 

imo the cardinals already know who they're going to elect. jp2 may have just recently passed away but iirc there were a couple of times where he was "sure to die" and then recovered. During these periods I'm sure that "campaigning season" was already going on. Being men of God doesn't exempt them from politics; they bring it to a whole new level.

 

The pope has a special kind of will which may include his preference for a successor. This may be a good thing or a bad one, depending on the kind of pope he was. But in this case it's probably a good thing. The cardinals are of course not obligated to vote for the pope's preference.

 

Probably very little. In terms of real power, the Pope wields none apart from the RCC. However, in international politics he does have a great deal of influence, which is the next best thing.

I think a pope from Africa or South America is a real possibility. I do not think that China or Russia are realistic however. Popes come almost exclusivlely from countries where Catholicism is the dominant religion. Many regions in Africa qualify, and virtually the whole of South America qualifies. The majority of Chinese aren't even Christian, never mind Catholic, and the Christians in Russia by and large aren't Catholic - they are Russian Orthodox.